"BEAR" WITH ME

Just as President Reagan said "Trust, But Verify" , that is how the stock market feels right now. Heading into the lesser semi-annual cycle (May through October), and with the May - June period especially vulnerable (like October) in a mid-term election year, I would not be un-hedged these days. Stocks cannot seem to rise to new highs, especially the Nasdaq/tech stocks. "Legal" Insiders are still selling bigtime (see below-officers and board members at 200 sales, up from 150 the prior week).
The newsletter surveys resumed their Bullish slant (from the inverted one); gold commercial sellers still remain high, although off the peak. ETF flows and margin debt monthly figures should be out next week - in my earlier report, as I shall be off on vacation.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/25/2014	4/18/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16361	16408
	NAZ	4075	4062
	SPX	1863	1864
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.3/3.3	8.0/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.82	**2.66
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.1	13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1698/1517	2394/812
Weekly Net:		181	1582
Cumulative:		158877	158696
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	313/49	190/86
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	165/100	94/185
McClellan	Oscillator	-2	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	798	696
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.6	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.7	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34.5	27.2
	Bear	26	34.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11k/12k	8k/18k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(90k)	(88k)
CEOinsider	selling	48:1	11:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	200:35	150:6/15*
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	6.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.3B	(35.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	466B	FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1035/397/266	FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.43%	0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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"BEAR" WITH ME

Hallelujah! It Has Risen

Sector totals of Insider Selling dropped precipitously to only 11 to 1 Sellers (from 68:1 the week prior); while the newly found records of "smart" Insiders - Board members, Officers dropped to 150 sales, while 10% share holders  reversed to more Buyers than Sellers! Per my Sentiment blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com, MMFs (Money Markets) are shedding dollars again and Equity funds are gradually picking up, per ICI. The AAII Bears inverted over the Bulls again - a Bullish contrarian sign

- although the Investors Intell. - Wire house advisory letters- were still complacent. In my studies of the two for my CMT designation on Sentiment, I found the AAII more accurate- from a Contrary point of view.  

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/18/2014	4/11/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16408	16026
	NAZ	4062	3999
	SPX	1864	1815
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.0/3.0	11.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		**2.66	2.9
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.4	17
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2394/812	975/2241
Weekly Net:		1582	-1266
Cumulative:		158696	157114
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	190/86	134/78
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	94/185	79/157
McClellan	Oscillator	14	-48
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	696	717
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	54.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.2	28.5
	Bear	34.3	34.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/18k	12k/20k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(88k)	(102k)
CEOinsider	selling	11:1	68:1?
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:6/15*	180:15
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	2.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(35.0B)	(17.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.	466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	FEB.	1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Hallelujah! It Has Risen

RED MOON AT NIGHT

To paraphrase the wayfarers' saying:  Red Sky At  Night- Sailors' Delight, weird things happen in April and October. These are moon-based events - eclipses every 6 months, when we get earthquakes, market crashes. With the human body a high % liquid, the moon has a gravity pull - hence "lunatic".
Maybe this will precipitate a much-needed correction in the stock market, especially Nas and tech stocks.
Not much new in the Sentiment area, although Insider Selling by Industry group (although several n/as in there) actually doubled from the week before - 34 to 68 to 1. My favorite predictor, the McClellan Oscillator did fall to -48, just two points away from my usual BUY signal of minus 50 - hence the rally today!
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/11/2014	4/4/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16026	16412
	NAZ	3999	4127
	SPX	1815	1865
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	11.3/3.9	10.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.9	3.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17	13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		975/2241	2130/1063
Weekly Net:		-1266	1067
Cumulative:		157114	158380
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	134/78	389/30
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	79/157	258/103
McClellan	Oscillator	-48	-10
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	717	837
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.6	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.5	35.4
	Bear	34.1	26.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12k/20k	9k/21k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(102k)	(114k)
CEOinsider	selling	68:1?	34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	180:15	175:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(17.7B)	(13.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	466B	FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1035/397/266	FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.42%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RED MOON AT NIGHT

Weak Week

There is a basic Technical rule that historically !!! the last day and the first four days of the month are positive for the market, as people get paid, especially around Income tax time. This was true...until Friday. Weekly Sentiment Indicators looked fairly benign for the week - surveys take place Tues. and Wed.- although the relative extremes were still high - Insider Selling (Board,Officers) since December; margin interest a new record, although low rates and the Fed Put option help this ongoing fact.

High on the radar is the Presidential four-year cycle, with 2014 being the mid-election year, where markets have dipped a minimum of 9% without fail for several decades. Barron's had an article that especially May and (even worse) June proved the "Sell in May" adage. The past two days seem to verify players coming in early, like HFTs!

Although weekly breadth (hurt by Friday) remained strong, low VIX and high Nas Volume warned.

Here are the numbers (more at: http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard)

Date>		4/4/2014	3/28/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16412	16323
	NAZ	4127	4155
	SPX	1865	1857
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.9/3.6	11.4/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.03	3.17
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.9	14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2130/1063	1485/1713
Weekly Net:		1067	-228
Cumulative:		158380	157313
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	389/30	213/64
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	258/103	161/110
McClellan	Oscillator	-10	-10
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	837	768
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	54.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	17.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.4	31.2
	Bear	26.8	28.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	9k/21k	7k/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(114k)	(127k)
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:30	200:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.2B)	(3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.	466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	FEB.	1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.42%	0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Weak Week