The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (when it's open) have been in a Yin/Yang struggle, first monthly, more recently weekly ups and downs. After last week's turmoil the VIX closed at a recent high of 17; and the McClellan Oscillator in the minus zone. My latest Indicator- McMillan's CBOE equity put/call ratio- is on a SELL mode. Margin debt is near an all-time high - $382B, but Insiders have slowed down on Selling, as have the Large COT traders in the SPX. Also on the COT (Commitment of Traders), Gold commercials have increased their shorts, coming off an 11-year low. The Inflation harbinger - the 2-year TSY- equalled its recent high yield of .40%!!
What is strange is ETFs have seen INFLOWS in stocks, Int'l AND Bonds month over month. Here are the numbers for last week:
Date> | 8/30/2013 | 8/23/2013 | |
Indices: | DJIA | 14810 | 15010 |
NAZ | 3589 | 3657 | |
SPX | 1632 | 1663 | |
WklyVolume (Bshs). | |||
NASD/NYSE | 7.0/3.1 | 6.5/.3.1 | |
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.26 | 2.10 | |
nasd/nyse | |||
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 62 | 59 |
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 17.0 | 14.0 | |
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 822/2368 | 1922/1272 | |
Weekly Net: | -1546 | 650 | |
Cumulative: | 148403 | 149949 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 133/176 | 122/647 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 197/75 | 208/98 |
McClellan | Oscillator | -23 | -3 |
McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -325 | -219 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 38.1 | 43.3 |
Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 23.8 | 21.6 |
AAII -Bull :wed. | 33.5 | 29 | |
Bear | 30.7 | 42.9 | |
COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 4/-12 | 7/-1 |
COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | -88 | -68 |
CEOinsider | selling | 19:1 | 17:1 |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 76 | 79 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1weeklag | (.4B) |
MMF flows | Change in $B | 6.5B | 15.4B |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 382B | JULY |
ETF:Eqty/ | Int'l/Bond | 925/335/250 | JULY |
(Monthly | B$$ .) | ||
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.40% | 0.38% |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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