GETTING HIGH

The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

Although the S&P 500 is making an all-time high today, breaching the recent weekly one of 1588 and reaching for 1600, there are a couple cautionary Sentiment signals out there for the intermediate term:

* The latest monthly reading of Margin Interest is $1B away from its all-time high in July of '07 at $380B.

 

* Although Charles Biderman of TrimTabs stated the largest inflows of mutual fund $$ in Q! since 2004, the ETF flows (also monthly) dropped precipitously from Feb. to Mar., in equity, int'l and bonds: from 13% to 18% and 18% respectively. 

Survey sentiment is mixed with broker newsletters (I.I.) showing below 20% Bears, but the AAII showing just under 40%, down from two weeks near 50% - they hit 70% in March of '09, the start of the current Bull phase.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/26/2013	4/19/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14712	14547
	NAZ	3279	3206
	SPX	1582	1555
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.6/3.4	8.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.53	2.00
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	76
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.6	15.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2375/783	920/2258
Weekly Net:		1592	-1338
Cumulative:		150810	149218
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	570/75	293/146
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	330/105	163/158
McClellan	Oscillator	18	-15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	724	629
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.3	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.3	26.8
	Bear	38.8	48.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	4/13	1/21
CEOinsider	selling	19:1	14:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.9B)	(27.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	380B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	704/286/202
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.22%	0.23%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GETTING HIGH

LIKE A SHIP WITHOUT A SAIL-

On a sea without a trail - Neil Diamond.

As Ben Bernanke follows his unprecedented zero policy, markets have finally corrected a bit from the sugar highs of the past 4 years of QEs.

More commentary is at: www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers from last week:

 

Date>		4/19/2013	4/12/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14547	14865
	NAZ	3206	3294
	SPX	1555	1588
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.6/4.3	7.8/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.00	2.36
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	76	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.0	12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		920/2258	2310/870
Weekly Net:		-1338	1440
Cumulative:		149218	150556
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	293/146	604/62
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	163/158	320/69
McClellan	Oscillator	-15	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	629	766
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47.4	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	26.8	19.3
	Bear	48.2	54.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/21	7/9
CEOinsider	selling	14:1	77:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(27.5B)	(8.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.23%

.

*********************************************************************

For those readers who follow technical analysis, two giants in the field (including my former boss, Harvey Baraban) will be holding forth at the Embarcadero home of Bloomberg, in early May.
UPCOMING TSAA EVENT: "Harvey Baraban: "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID! Matching the Market to a Set of Indicators" and Brett Villaume: "Observations on Technical Analysis; A Chartist's Perspective of The Bank Sector"
Join us May 11th from 9AM-12PM at Bloomberg's Office, Pier 3, Unit #101.

*********************************************************************

For those readers who follow technical analysis, two giants in the field (including my former boss, Harvey Baraban) will be holding forth at the Embarcadero home of Bloomberg, in early May.
UPCOMING TSAA EVENT: "Harvey Baraban: "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID! Matching the Market to a Set of Indicators" and Brett Villaume: "Observations on Technical Analysis; A Chartist's Perspective of The Bank Sector"
Join us May 11th from 9AM-12PM at Bloomberg's Office, Pier 3, Unit #101.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

LIKE A SHIP WITHOUT A SAIL-

BROKEN CLOCK

The Sentiment Indicators finally rang true despite the sloshing of money by the Fed guaranteeing a rising market (QE4-ever)
Despite a vast majority of analyst Bullishness, an exceptional AAII early week ratio, and MMF withdrawals reversing prior week Inflows, the market is finally correcting. Along with gold!

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/12/2013	4/5/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14865	14565
	NAZ	3294	3203
	SPX	1588	1553
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.8/3.3	7.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.36	2.32
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2310/870	1080/2091
Weekly Net:		1440	-1011
Cumulative:		150556	149116
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	604/62	492/91
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	320/69	299/102
McClellan	Oscillator	2	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	766	760
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	52
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	19.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	19.3	35.5
	Bear	54.5	28.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	7/9	5/12
CEOinsider	selling	77:1	107:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(8.9B)	3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.23%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BROKEN CLOCK

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS

For Indicator comparisons, here are the multi-year highs and lows of various Sentiment Indicators that have proven most effective:

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	14578	6626
	NAZ	3267	1114
	SPX	1569	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		150127	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.09:108	May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	(1514).
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	381B(7/07)
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL

The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 

Date>		4/5/2013	3/29/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14565	14578
	NAZ	3203	3267
	SPX	1553	1569
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.9/3.4	6.1/2.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.32	2.26
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.9	12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1080/2091	1883/1254
Weekly Net:		-1011	629
Cumulative:		149116	150127
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	492/91	622/51
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	299/102	376/66
McClellan	Oscillator	-38	4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	760	931
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.4	19.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.5	38.4
	Bear	28.2	28.7
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	5/12	4/12
CEOinsider	selling	107:1	28:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.7B	3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		FEB.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		FEB.
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL

FOOL ME ONCE

Tick, tick, tick - as noted below in the matrix, Margin Interest for February has increased to near-record levels ( 381B was the amount in July 2007). In that instance, it was 3 months before the crash of '07. History may not repeat itself exactly, but it Rhymes.

The S&P 500 finally hit a new NOMINAL high the day before Good Friday (TIGF!), and today sees the usual Monday selloff for 2013, although historically the first day of the month is usually strong.
Here are the numbers- more commentary on them can be found at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Each week this column attempts to highlight Contrary Behavior Indicators (as opposed to making market predictions) by concentrating various comments and data in one place. The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates. It also tries to publicize various San Francisco Bay Area investment meetings for the week ahead.

 

Date>		3/29/2013	3/22/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14578	14512
	NAZ	3267	3245
	SPX	1569	1556
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		6.1/2.7	8.1/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.38
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	13.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1883/1254	1665/1509
Weekly Net:		629	156
Cumulative:		150127	149498
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	622/51	579/102
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	376/66	351/50
McClellan	Oscillator	4	-7
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	931	954
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.4	38.9
	Bear	28.7	33.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	4/12	6/18
CEOinsider	selling	28:1	58:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.7B	(26.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.	366B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	FEB.	812/350/245
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FOOL ME ONCE