SO GOOD, SO FAR!:

Despite the oft-publicized warning that September is the cruelest month for stocks, the Election Year projections from Ned Davis Research that I've been writing about here and the Examiner column: 

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard, have been right on. 

according to it, however, next week is the critical market juncture. Of the 28 EYs from 1900, if the Incumbent is to win, or the summation of all EYs (including termed out), the market will keep rising, with bumps, of course. The U.S. fiscal year (not cliff) ends this month, the election, Euro, etc. can produce volatility.

Sentiment indicators are issuing an overbought warning for now, hopefully just a sideways move. Facts such as the End of Quarter rebalancing by institutions, put/call ratio, bullish per cent, even newsletter surveys show caution.  Last week the CEO Insider Selling was 42:1 after hitting a high of 78 :1 the week before. Last week selling brought the McClellan Oscillator near zero, but the cum. Summation is way high at 888. NYSE new lows to highs were almost 20:1 again. 

Awhile back Arch Crawford, who trained at Merrill Lynch under Bob Farrell, but relies a lot on alignment of stars, points out the current Vernal Equinox as a climactic moment for stocks.

Here are the results from last week:

 

Date>		9/21/2012	9/14/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13579	13593
	NAZ	3179	3183
	SPX	1460	1465
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.2/4.4	8.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.09	2.39
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.98	14.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1371/1768	2317/837
Weekly Net:		-397	1480
Cumulative:		143061	143458
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	505/32	722/36
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	332/74	403/81
McClellan	Oscillator	4	63
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	888	820
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.2	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	24.5	25.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	37.5	36.5
	Bear	33.8	33
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	9/22.	5/5.
CEOinsider	selling	42:1	78:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(2.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10.3B)	8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		277B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .		702/264/226
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SO GOOD, SO FAR!: