FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME...

From May to November - the historical 6-month bi-cycle is skewed heavily in favor of the November to May cycle (thanks mostly to Sept. & Oct.), so the current one can get choppy at best.
The extreme sentiment readings of the previous week finally paid off today, with the DJIA up  150 - hopefully a 1st-of-the-month rally will ensue and wipe out May's losses.
 Weekly net Advance/Declines swung from minus 2609 to a plus 1805 this week; the CBOE put/call ratio dropped from a Bullish (On the market) 89 to 66. The oversold McClellan Oscillator went from a record minus 110 to minus 6, yet AAII Bull/Bear ratio remains inverted, and Insider Selling has dried up for now.
For more explanation of the Indicators below, please see my upcoming Examiner.com column today:
 

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

I have also used the column to make readers aware of  the June investor meetings - technical, options, and beginning investors. You can get these and 1 or 2 weekly columns by clicking on "SUBSCRIBE".

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/25/2012	5/18/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12454	12369
	NAZ	2837	2778
	SPX	1317	1295
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	10.1/4.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	89
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	21.8	25.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2495/690	297/2906
	Weekly Net:	1805	-2609
	Cumulative:	131099	129294
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	73/175	90/259
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	75/257	92/330
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-110
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-470	-323
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.3	39.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	22.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	30.5	23.6
	Bear	38.7	46
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/(23)	3/(15)
CEOinsider	selling	7:1	13:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1141	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.3B	(5.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.42	5.47

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME...

1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

After falling 1,000 points from its 22% runup high, the DJIA has corrected a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and nearly to the Pt. & Fig. maximum level.  This record decline (12 losing days in the past 14), the most since 1974, has created a much oversold condition. Judging from a strong Monday, after option expiry and the annular equinox, we should  see at least a bounce in the markets -possibly a summer rally.
The McClellan Oscillator hit a new multi-year low of -110 (surpassing -108), the AAII Bull/Bear ratio of postcard opinions of 23 to 46, with the Commitment of Traders on the S&P mimicking it. As I stated in my Examiner.com column (Examiner.com - search Brent Leonard) the Declines outdid the Advances 10:1. a climactic amount on the strongest Volume in weeks. Finally, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio reached 89 -another recent high. Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/18/2012	5/11/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12369	12820
	NAZ	2778	2933
	SPX	1295	1353
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	10.1/4.7	9.7/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	2.37
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	89	88
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	25.1	19.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	297/2906	1238/1937
	Weekly Net:	-2609	-699
	Cumulative:	129294	131903
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	90/259	191/144
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	92/330	163/223
McClellan	Oscillator	-110	-50
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-323	-50
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	39.4	38.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.3	20.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	23.6	25.4
	Bear	46	42.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(15)	3/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	13:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	59
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(2.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.4B)	1.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.47	5.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

BELATED BLOG:

Back from a 4 city vacation with family and friends, here are the results from last week's Sentiment readings:
Markets down 6% so far; CBOE put/call ratio up to 88 with the McClellan Oscillator @ minus 50 - both Bullish. The AAII Bull/Bear still inverted (more Bears), also Bullish.

Date>		5/11/2012	5/4/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12820	13038
	NAZ	2933	2956
	SPX	1353	1369
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.7/4.1	9.0/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.37	2.20
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	88	69
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.9	19.2
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1238/1937	1023/2149
	Weekly Net:	-699	-1126
	Cumulative:	131903	132602
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	191/144	363/82
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	163/223	281/151
McClellan	Oscillator	-50	-1
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-50	276
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.7	43
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	20.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	25.4	35.4
	Bear	42.1	36.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(6)	11/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	30:1	46:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1156
3-box rev	Bullish%-	59	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.4B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.2B	(14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.4	5.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BELATED BLOG:

PARTIAL POST:

Due to leaving early on vacation there is only a partial posting of the Sentiment Indicators this week (and a late posting next week). Ugly Friday after bad unemployment numbers and a French election Sunday. Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear numbers (see Examiner.com column for clearer explanation - Search the site for Brent Leonard- are more complacent than ever, seeing how they are released Tuesday and Wednesday (with AAIIs).
Here are the partials:

Date>		5/4/2012	4/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13038	13228
	NAZ	2956	3069
	SPX	1369	1403
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.6/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE		59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2251/923
	Weekly Net:		1328
	Cumulative:		133728
Weekly	NYSE hi/low		308/102
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l		238/125
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	44
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	276	193
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43	41.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	23.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.4	27.6
	Bear	36.1	37.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k		2/(8)
CEOinsider	selling		58:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1156	1116
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(14.8B)	(.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAR:	295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MAR:	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation			0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

PARTIAL POST: