THE BIG CASINO:

Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/27/2012	4/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13228	13029
	NAZ	3069	3000
	SPX	1403	1378
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	16.3	17.4
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/923	2036/1136
	Weekly Net:	1328	900
	Cumulative:	133728	132400
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	308/102	208/93
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	238/125	194/120
McClellan	Oscillator	44	-8
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	193	139
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.9	44.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	23.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.6	31.2
	Bear	37.4	33.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(8)	8/(5)
CEOinsider	selling	58:1	12:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1116	972
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(8.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.5B)	.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MARCH	$295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MARCH	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE BIG CASINO:

WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

Barron's magazine this week reported the Big Money Poll Result for the upcoming months - even these geniuses can prove to be a Contrarian's delight. Last Fall the number of Bulls was a lowly 52% - as we now know, the market rallied some 24% since then; the previous Spring the number was 59%, just when the when the DJIA was poised to drop 800 points in May, and 1600 points in June. The Poll number is now 55% Bullish (4% VERY).
Barron's also reported the oft-quoted statistic that since WWII the Nov. to May cycle has produced a profit on $100 to nearly $10,000; while its complementary cycle (May to Nov.) would have netted $99, or a $1 LOSS. If today is any indication.....
The Indicators are, on the whole, rather benign with the Bullish exception of a reversal in the AAII Bull/Bear ratio to 31 Bulls to 33 Bears; also the number of Insider Sales to Buys dropped precipitously, and the MMFs actually had a small Inflow for the first time on many months.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/20/2012	4/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13029	12849
	NAZ	3000	3011
	SPX	1378	1370
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/4.0	7.7/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	1.93
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.4	19.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2036/1136	915/2260
	Weekly Net:	900	-1345
	Cumulative:	132400	131500
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	208/93	111/109
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	194/120	113/142
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	-46
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	139	231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.1	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	21.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	31.2	28.1
	Bear	33.8	41.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	8/(5)	2/(1)
CEOinsider	selling	12:1	42:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	972	928
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	.3B	(6.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

SELL IN MAY:

A recent iteration of the May-Nov. rule (6-month cycle) showed if a $100 were invested in the Oct.to May cycle, the profit since shortly after WWII would be just under $10,000 - if the complement cycle were used to invest, the result would be $99 ( a $1 loss). Something to think about these days - a reason to look into the DITM covered call strategy, with the Weapons of Math Destruction looming!
As expected, investors  (those few who remain after the 70% artificial intelligence crowd gets through with them) got a bit defensive in attitude: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose from 60 to 66 the past week; AAII Bears rose hugely from 27% to 41%! Bulls dropped 10 points to 28.
  Dollars continue to exit Money Market Funds (no surprise there) but also from equity funds. Most are still going into bonds, some ETFs. Today's DJIA rally is no surprise after the selloff drove the McClellan Oscillator down to -46 -just off my -50 delimiter.
Here are the weekly numbers:

Date>		4/13/2012	4/5/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12849	13060
	NAZ	3011	3080
	SPX	1370	1398
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	7.7/4.0	6.9/3.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.93	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.6	16.7
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	915/2260	1139/1999
	Weekly Net:	-1345	-860
	Cumulative:	131500	132845
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	111/109	246/68
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	113/142	197/107
McClellan	Oscillator	-46	-25
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	231	540
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	52.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.5	21.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.1	38.2
	Bear	41.6	27.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(1)	.6/2
CEOinsider	selling	42:1	44:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	928	931
3-box rev	Bullish%-	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.1B)	(15.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.32%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SELL IN MAY:

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER:

Sentiment Indicators warned of toppiness in the markets a few weeks ago with Orange Alert, and Tom DeMark of Bloomie nailed it on March 26. Based on several reasons, my guess of 2012 was a Bar Bell approach, with the 1st and 4th Q rising, and the middle sloppy. 6-month, 4-year Presidential and Decennial cycles are the main deciders. So good so far.

Buy signals are not seen nor expected in the near future - several Indicators are still at Bearish (for the market) levels. the Inv.Intell. Bulls hit 52.7%, a recent high; NASD Volume increased vs. NYSE (speculative); CEO Insider Selling was cut in half, but still high at 44:1. The SPX was stretched above its 50-day MA.

For my DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered call strategy:

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com

it has been put on hold while awaiting a bottom entry level. While it is not the best short term strategy for the recent Bull run, it has increased the safety cushion on existing holdings.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/5/2012 3/30/2012 Indices: DJIA  13060 13212   NAZ  3080 3091 SPX  1398 1408 NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 6.9/3.1 8.5/4.1 nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.07 Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 66 Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.7 15.5 Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1139/1999 1723/1443 Weekly Net: -860 280      Cumulative: 132845 133705 Weekly  NYSE hi/low 246/68 320/61 New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 197/107 351/57 McClellan  Oscillator -25 40 McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 540 664 Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.7 50.1 Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.5 22.6 AAII  -Bull :wed. 38.2 42.5 Bear  27.8 25.5 COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k .6/2 5/(2) CEOinsider selling 44:1 89:1 BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 931 930 3-box rev Bullish%-  83 US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.5B) MMF flows Change in $B (15.2B) (17.2B) MargDebt- top (300M) monthly FEB.. 289B ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ FEB.. 691/291/200 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.34% Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.2 5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BETTER LATE THAN NEVER:

IS APRIL THE CRUELEST MONTH t.s.elliot?

According to Barron's magazine, a year ago analysts estimated Q1 of 2012 would be 16%; revised estimates are .7 to 3.1%. And the ratio of earnings pronouncements at 3:1 is the highest since Q1 of 2009 - and we know what happened in March. Transports, the Dow Theory benchmark, was only up 5% last Q, but it is opined that Coal was the reason.
As for the Sentiment Indicators, the Insider Selling to Buying ratio keeps increasing ( but it did that in Q2 of 2009 - the start of the Bull market). Last week was 89:1. Money is flowing out of MMFs at an increasing rate, but mostly going into Bond funds, with equity ETFs increasing slightly.
Large traders, from the Commitment of Traders table, have reversed their multi-month position and are now long the S&P futures, while Small traders are now short. Complacency rules in the newsletter surveys, but toppiness is seen in the McClellan Oscillator and the Bullish % remains high (overbot).
Be sure to check out my new Examiner.com for local events and stock market news.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/30/2012	3/22/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13212	13080
	NAZ	3091	3067
	SPX	1408	1397
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.5/4.1	7.5/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.07	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	57
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	15.5	14.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1723/1443	1393/1765
	Weekly Net:	280	-372
	Cumulative:	133705	133425
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	320/61	235/40
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	351/57	293/58
McClellan	Oscillator	40	38
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	664	765
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.1	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.6	23.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.5	42.4
	Bear	25.5	27.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	5/(2)	10/(4)
CEOinsider	selling	89:1	83:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	930	874
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(17.2B)	(15.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..	289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..	691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.37%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg			5	4.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

IS APRIL THE CRUELEST MONTH t.s.elliot?