As a follower of the 18-year cycle (from 1790), I respectfully disagree, as I buy into the Lost Decade (double) of Martin Pring. With the overhangs of public and private debt (much higher than 1929) and a stubborn unemployment, my view is quite choppy until at least 2018 ( a Fibonacci number from 1929). What would kick out my view would be a hyperinflation trashing of the Dollar before then, where we break out the wheelbarrows from Germany.
Another prediction - this from Tom Demark on Bloomberg (for whom he has been the chief Technical Analysts for years) - today marks the top for awhile.
Predictions aside, after several Sentiment Indicators previously reached extreme highs (Bearish), they have currently receded: Nasdaq Volume vis-a-vis NYSE (speculative), the CBOE put/call ratio; high Money Market Outflows - although mostly into Bonds. One standout below is the Key Insider Selling ratio, after doubling last week, it rose again to 80:1 sellers. These are officers who should know what their company is doing, but they were egregiously wrong in the Spring of '09 - just as the roaring Bull was starting.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 3/22/2012 | 3/15/2012 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 13080 | 13232 |
| NAZ | 3067 | 3055 | |
| SPX | 1397 | 1404 | |
| NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs). | 7.5/3.7 | 8.4/4.9 |
| nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.03 | 1.71 |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 57 | 55 |
| Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 14.8 | 14.5 |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1393/1765 | 1777/1395 | |
| Weekly Net: | -372 | 382 | |
| Cumulative: | 133425 | 133797 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 235/40 | 355/39 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 293/58 | 330/60 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 38 | -13 |
| McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 765 | 891 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 48.4 | 43.6 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 23.6 | 26.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 42.4 | 45.6 | |
| Bear | 27.8 | 27.2 | |
| COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 10/(4) | (2)/4 |
| CEOinsider | selling | 83:1 | 60:1 |
| BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | 874 | 824 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 83 | 83 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1 wk lag | (2.9B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (15.5B) | (8.2B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly OCT. | ||
| ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond | million$$ OCT. | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.37% | 0.37% | |
| Euro futures | 1 yr.offset-CommHedg | 4.9 | 5.39 |
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