Tom's prediction: 1330-45 on the SPX by the 21st of Dec. did seem pretty outlandish, and now - two days away, with the SPX at 1212, it would take a Xmas miracle to get there, although a yearend rally is likely (The Santa Claus rally is actually between Xmas and New Year's).
Other than the CBOE put/call ratio at 80, no other Indicator is at an extreme, this past low-volume week:
Date> | 12/16/2011 | 12/9/2011 | |
Indices: | DJIA | 11866 | 12184 |
NAZ | 2555 | 2646 | |
SPX | 1219 | 1255 | |
NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs) | 5.3/9.3 | 4.4/8.3 |
nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.75 | 1.89 |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 80 | 77 |
Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 24.29 | 26.38 |
Advance/Dec-NYSE | 813/2348 | 1876/1269 | |
Weekly Net: | -1535 | 607 | |
Cumulative: | 123955 | 125490 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 190/168 | 239/44 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 87/292 | 110/147 |
McClellan | Oscillator | -17 | 16 |
McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 81 | 237 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 45.3 | 47.4 |
Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 30.5 | 29.5 |
AAII -Bull :wed. | 40.2 | 38.6 | |
Bear | 33.6 | 34.8 | |
COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 17/19. | 11/34. |
CEOinsider | selling | 19:1 | 40:1 |
BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | 1889 | 1882 |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 58 | 61 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1 wk lag | 1 wk lag |
MMF flows | Change in $B | .3B | 25.3B |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly OCT. | 283B | |
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond | million$$ OCT. | 615/265/174 | |
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.23% | 0.23% | |
Euro futures | 1 yr.offset | 5.78M | |
CommHedg |
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