The last time the AAII Bull/Bear ratio was spread this wide (the Bears 20 points below the Bulls) was July 15 week. A week later the DJIA dropped 2,000 points. Two other favorite indicators of mine - the McClellan Oscillator and CBOE Equity put/call ratio - are also getting toppy; as is the Bullish %.
Tom McClellan has kindly offered to share with us (in the upcoming TSAA Review) the correlation he showed on Bloomberg last week of the Euro$ Commitment of Traders vs. the SPX - offset 1 full year. His prediction is a bar bell UP for the first and last part of 2012 and sideways during the summer months.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:
Date> | 10/28/2011 | 11/4/2011 | 11/11/2011 | 7Yr.HI | LOW | ||
Indices: | DJIA | 12234 | 11983 | 12153 | 14093 | 6626 | |
NAZ | 2737 | 2686 | 2678 | 2861 | 1114 | ||
SPX | 1285 | 1253 | 1263 | 1561 | 683 | ||
NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs) | 5.5/10.4 | 5.3/10.0 | 4.4/9.2 | |||
nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.89 | 1.89 | 2.09 | 2.3 | 1.59 | |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 59 | 76 | 73 | 104.11/08 | 42 | |
Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 24.5 | 30.1 | 30 | 90 | 8.8 | |
Advance/Dec-NYSE | 2679/492 | 1023/2119 | 1558/1592 | ||||
Weekly Net: | 2187 | -1096 | -34 | ||||
Cumulative: | 125585 | 124489 | 124455 | 127929 | 71464 | ||
Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 229/38 | 113/57 | 154/73 | 950 | 18 | |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 153/98 | 87/139 | 89/159 | |||
McClellan | Oscillator | 77 | 22 | 38 | 108-1/09 | -100 -10/08 | |
McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 546 | 653 | 747 | 1568-6/03 | -1514 | |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 40 | 43.2 | 44.2 | 62.9-12/04 | 22.2-10/08 | |
Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 37.9 | 36.8 | 34.7 | 54.4-10/08 | 15.6 | |
AAII -Bull :wed. | 43 | 40.2 | 44.7 | (12/10)63.3 | |||
Bear | 25 | 29.6 | 24.6 | 70.3(3/09) | 16.4 | ||
COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 12/(10) | 3/15. | n/aHoliday | |||
CEOinsider | selling | 29:1 | 35:1 | 34:1 | 235:1 | .2.1 | |
BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | 2153 | 1817 | 1840 | 11700 | 663 | |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 77 | 74 | 72 | 88 | 2 |
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