RAISE THE ROOF !:

How about we start the Cap and Cut of the Budget by halting paychecks for the President and Congress? It worked for California.How about snugging up interest rates? According to the AIER, the nearly $20T in interest rate sensitive securities have cost $587B in consumption and 4 1/2 million jobs.

So far, stocks and Treas are calling Congress' bluff - both up for last week. Speculative NASD to NYSE Volume is at a recent record high; most other indicators regressed to the mean. The McClellan Oscillator is hovering around the zero line, as Tom is calling for a short term cycle bottom this week, but lower stocks going into October. Money Market flows reversed from $10B IN to $25B OUT, I know not where. US Mutual equity fund flows have been negative since April 22, when the S&P500 was $1 lower than today - maybe the public isn't that dumb!

Last February I started keeping track of COT (Commitment of Traders) for the S&P500 -during that whole time, including last week :large traders were (slightly) short and small traders (dumb money) long bigtime. Finally, Insider Selling jumped largely, with almost no Buying, to 63:1.

FYI - My book on Zero Rates - Zero (IN)Tolerance - should be out this week in eReader form (except Kindle , so far), at 2/3 the print book price, and updated.

Here are the results of last week:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12479	12657	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2789	2859	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1316	1343	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	71	62	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	19.5	16.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(11)	49.9	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	497	524	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	44.1	40.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.6	24.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.3	41.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.2	24.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.5B)
Money Market Flows	9.7B	3.9B
Baltic Dry Index:	1367	1453	11700	663
Bullish %:	69	71	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	42:1	58:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RAISE THE ROOF !:

PIXED MIXTURE:

Last week's sentiment indicators are giving  a mixed picture on the direction of the market - confusion of the debt ceiling is driving money out of equity mutual funds and back into MMFunds, even though they are reported to have European securities in them, for slightly enhanced yields! Risk/Reward?

The usually reliable CBOE put/call ratio at 71 assumes a higher market, possibly after the resolution of the above; but newsletter surveys are complacent and getting moreso; key officers' Insider Selling is still high, with almost no Buying.

Also negative FOR the market, Bullish % is high and COT (commitment of Traders) has smart money still shorting, with small speculators long. A sustained break below 1260 S&P 500 would make me change my Bullish stance for year-end.

Nasdaq:	2789	2859	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1316	1343	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	71	62	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	19.5	16.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(11)	49.9	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	497	524	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	44.1	40.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.6	24.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.3	41.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.2	24.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.5B)
Money Market Flows	9.7B	3.9B
Baltic Dry Index:	1367	1453	11700	663
Bullish %:	69	71	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	42:1	58:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PIXED MIXTURE:

"HERD" SHOT AROUND THE WORLD:

If Pro is the opposite of Con, is Congress the opposite of Progress? BTW, why do they call them "parties"? As they debate the debt ceiling, the market goes through the floor until Aug.2 (or later). Meanwhile corporations are paralyzed with confusion. Two months ago Key Officer Insider Selling to Buying set a new record of 235:1; last week it popped to 58:1 from 13, with almost no buying in all sectors.
After 2 months of downturn, last week's End-of-Quarter Rally saw improving breadth - my cumulative A/D set a new record high, and NYSE new highs/lows were 366 to 30. The McClellan Oscillator is still overbought at 50%; and newsletters are getting complacent.
Which is why I'm very defensive these days, in the weakest part of the year, with my DITM covered call strategy, which I am updating this Saturday for the SF Bay Area Option Group at Fort Mason. Today's drop has only 3 of my 30 position "temporarily under water". I recommend everyone take a look at this plan for at least a portion of their assets receiving 0% in CDs, MMFs; negative after taxes, Inflation, and a weakening dollar. See brentleonard.com for info on DITM - the eBook is currently being formatted.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12657	12582	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2859	2816	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1343	1339	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	62	57	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	16.0	15.9	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	49.9	90	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	524	248	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.9	39.8	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	24.7	26.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	41.8	38.3	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	24.7	30.2	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3B)
Money Market Flows	3.9B	(16.9B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1453	1420	11700	663
Bullish %:	71	68	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	58:1	13:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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"HERD" SHOT AROUND THE WORLD:

WINDOW DRESSING:

Talk about ending a quarter with a bang! After wild swings in Q2, the S&P 500 ended right where it started in April. Responding to the reliable Sentiment Indicators such as the CBOE put /call ratio at 90 a couple of weeks ago, and an inverted AAII Bull/Bear ratio, the market roared back almost to the high seen early May. Also alerting investors: the McClellan Oscillator at -68 and its concomitant Summation in a rare negative area. Money has been flowing out of Zero MMFs, but not into equity funds.
Currently we see signs of overbought short term, with the McClellan Oscillator at plus 90! The  VIX is below 16 again , and the Bulls are starting to get complacent.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12582	11934	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2816	2652	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1339	1268	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	57	61	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	15.9	21.19	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	90	(9)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	248	(11)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	39.8	37.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	26.9	28	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	38.3	37.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	30.2	35.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.3B)
Money Market Flows	(16.9B)	(8.1B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1420	1409	11700	663
Bullish %:	68	60	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	13:1	18:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WINDOW DRESSING: