RUNNING OF THE BULLS:

Several Indicators last week were nearing high levels of Bullishness "ON" the market (Bearish for it): the ratio of Volume on the NYSE vs. Nasdaq was near its speculative highs; the Inv.Intell. Bulls rose above 50, vs. 22 Bears; Margin Debt is huge - above $300B last seen at a previous market top ; others - VIX, McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, not quite extreme yet but getting there:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12220	11858	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2743	2643	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1313	1279	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	56	73	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.9	24.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	24	(26)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	426	386	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	50.6	52.2	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.4	22.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	37.7	28.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	35	40.1	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(1.3B)
Money Market Flows	(7.8B)	(10.5B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1538	1317	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	72	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	23:1	55:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RUNNING OF THE BULLS:

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL:

MktSentiment is entering its 6th year of publication, concentrating on the most effective of stock market Sentiment Indicators over time. Although the author received his CMT designation (Chartered Market Technician) in 1995 on the subject of Sentiment, he has only kept a weekly record for 10 years, sometimes replacing ineffective or obsolete Indicators with new ones after sufficient testing.
He has recently compiled a record of the 5 best Indicators shown on the tsaasf.org website (for which he is the Editor and Past President). This blog is produced each Monday, as many indicators (such as market survey letters) are posted weekly. Extremes can be used as a cautionary signal, as they can denote a cessation of a trend, not necessarily a reversal.
Last week's extremes include a high CBOE equity put/call ratio of 73; a negative McClellan Oscillator (although it stayed the same as the prior week at -26, it took a violent swing down and up); the AAII (Individual Investor) Bears jumped from 32 to 40 last week, although the Investors' Intelligence Bulls remained complacent. Technically, I like to watch the 6 to8-day cycles (3,4 up, 3,4 down) as we reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average today.
Posted below are the last two weeks, multi-year highs and lows: 

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11858	12044	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2643	2715	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1279	1304	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	73	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.4	20.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(26)	(26)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	386	669	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	52.2	52.2	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.3	21.1	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	28.5	36.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	40.1	32.3	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(1.1B)
Money Market Flows	(10.5B)	(1.4B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1538	1317	11700	663
Bullish %:	72	77	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	55:1	62:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL:

THE FAB FIVE:

As mentioned in the past few weeks, the top 5 Sentiment Indicators have been very reliable in calling for this downturn, just as they have in my recent 10-year Indicator Wrapup. They are: CBOE Equity put/call ratio being near its multi-year low; the McClellan Oscillator approaching a +50 level; the AAII Bull/Bear ratio signaling complacency; the Bullish Per Cent at all-time highs of 89; and the VIX being at a complacent low -more of a longer term danger signal.
These fab five compare closely with the levels last April 23, just before the Flash Crash of 17%.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12044	12169	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2715	2784	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1304	1321	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	56	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	20.1	19.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(26)	(22)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	669	778	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	52.2	50.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	21.1	19.5	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.0	36.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	32.3	33.2	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3.1B)
Money Market Flows	(1.4B)	.5B
Baltic Dry Index:	1538	1317	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	83	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	62:1	23:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE FAB FIVE:

SAME OL', SAME OL':

Just as the market went sideways after the fall last week, so did the Indicators - almost not even worth posting. The McClellan Oscillator went negative (-22), Inv.Intell. is still complacent, and the margin debt increased on its way to $300B.

For what it's worth, the AAII is above average in investment in stocks (63%), but has the lowest % in Bonds (17%) since Aug. '09, which was a previous low in the long bond.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12169	12130	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2784	2781	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1321	1319	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	56	66	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	19.1	19.2	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(22)	3	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	778	753	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	50.6	53.3	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	19.5	18.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.8	36.6	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	33.2	36.2	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	1.5B
Money Market Flows	.5B	(5.1B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1317	1301	11700	663
Bullish %:	83	83	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	23:1	94:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SAME OL', SAME OL':