Monday, December 13, 2010

ORANGE ALERT - CAUTION!!!:

After summing up a decade of this column's Weekly Sentiment Indicators, the strongest ones decided to show off their strength last week by exhibiting the most Bearish (FOR the market, not ON the market) in years. As reported elsewhere (AAII newsletter, Barron's) the surveys were at exaggerated extremes; the CBOE put/call ratio and VIX both slid to recent lows (complacency); even CEO Insider Selling has been huge, although that is almost a contrary indicator, judging from 3 or 4 recent periods. The new Nasdaq/NYSE Volume ratio even went low, showing a non-speculative feeling, even as the market surges on with unanimous crowd support and historic yearend bullishness.
Here are the numbers for last week:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1141011382140936626
Nasdaq:2637259128051114
S&P 500:124012241561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 465396-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.618.0908.8
McClellan Osc:914108(123)
McClellan Sum:4364211568(1514)
           Newsletter Surveys



InvestorsIntel.Bull:
56.255.46322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.321.854.416
AAII Bull:
53.049.7n/an/a
AAII Bear:
22.626.2n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(1.8B)  
Money Market Flows25.3B(3.2B)

Baltic Dry Index:2111209611700663
Bullish %:
8279882
Insider Corporate Sellers:38:134:1108:12.4:1

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