END OF AN ERA:

For a variety of reasons, including too much computer time spent on an inflamed sciatica, a confusing set of Sentiment signals due to HFT trading, summertime public indifference, government interventionS, and difficulty in retrieving valid data, this Sentiment Blog of over 5 years will soon come to an end.

I hope the reader has found interest and value in the collection of Sentiment Indicators based on 25 years market experience and a CMT designation on Sentiment in 1995, and the ads placed on the blog. With 10s of thousands of website hits (albeit too few clicks on the ads to defray research expenses), any comments would be welcome at brentleonard.com.

Last week's data were pretty benign, with market whipsaws seeing regressions to the mean. The Bullish % gave a Buy signal the previous week followed by a very ugly week. The McClellan Oscillator, however, was prescient with its 50 reading, now -1. Mutual fund's Money Markets attracted $11B, after regurgitating $35 B the previous week.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10143	10450	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2223	2309	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1076	1117	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	63	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	28.5	24.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-1	50	108	-123
McClellan Sum:	-44	-48	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	41.1	37.0	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	31.1	32.6	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	34.5	42.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	32.4	30.7	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	2.1	1.2	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-3.7B
Money Market Flows	11B	-35B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Apr.831B	Mar.805B
Baltic Dry Index:	2501	2694	11700	663
Bullish %:	53	54	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	12:1	20:1	108:1	2.4:1

GOODBYE AND GOOD LUCK !

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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END OF AN ERA:

Poly-Cycles:

In last week's Barron's magazine Michael Santoli's column showed a chart by Ned Davis Research, of a nesting of several cycles - I've been citing these for months now and the visualization matches the historical prediction. Years ago I did a white paper on cycles going back to 1790 (thanks to Jake Bernstein's Cycle book), which showed the 18-year double cycle Martin Pring has been warning about; with the zero year also being the worst year in the Decennial cycle over 12 decades; the 4 year cycle almost perfect since WWII, the May to November period - all show a dismal few months to come (after a brief oversold summer rally).

Couple that with a failed Santa Claus rally, a lousy January barometer, and a global economy, and my DITM (deep-in-the-money) investment strategy looks pretty good (see www.brentleonard.com for more).

The sentiment indicators below do not show too much in the way of extremes, but the CEO insider selling continues to increase, while the Baltic Dry Index (proxy for the global economy) decreases weekly; money market funds gave up the most since April, the apogee of the sugar rally. And the AAII Bull/Bear ratio did a huge about face from the prior week, indicating complacency.

While breadth is stronger recently, the McClellan Oscillator is flashing a short term warning.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10450	10211	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2309	2243	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1117	1091	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	63	68	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24	30.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	50	20	108	-123
McClellan Sum:	-48	-383	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	37	38.5	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	32.6	31.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	42.5	34.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	30.7	43.1	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	1.2	0.85	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-3.7B
Money Market Flows	-35B	.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Apr.831B	Mar.805B
Baltic Dry Index:	2694	3423	11700	663
Bullish %:	54buy	41	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	20:1	17:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Poly-Cycles:

EARLY EDITION:

Due to graduation plans this weekly report comes early this week. Despite volatile swings within a bounded Trading Range - like a puppy dog with a rag doll - most indicators were centered. Insider Selling by CEOs, et.al. rose slightly, especially in the Financial sector; the Bullish % of stocks on a BUY signal fell with a 6% (3 two-point boxes on Pt.& Fig. S&P 500 chart) decline, but a false signal due to volatility.

Both the midweek AAII Bears and the Nova/Ursa from Rydex funds increased slightly, which should be Bullish.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10211	9931	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2243	2219	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1091	1064	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	60	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	30.6	35.5	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	20	-30	108	-123
McClellan Sum:	-383	-307	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	38.5	39.8	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	31.9	28.4	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	34.5	37.1	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	43.1	40.8	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.85	1.14	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-1.1B
Money Market Flows	.7B	-9.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Apr.831B	Mar.805B
Baltic Dry Index:	3423	3933	11700	663
Bullish %:	45	48	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	17:1	12:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EARLY EDITION:

THE CHICKEN OR THE EGG?:

It would be nice to know if the "event", such as - Grave concerns in Hungary drove U.S. stocks lower - as reported by media pundits, actually drives the stockmarket (nearly 100 million investors strong, simultaneously reacting), or whether the drop in stocks makes the "event" more serious.

At a recent auction, a Monet (read money) painting sold for $58M - and we thought Dutch tulips were overbought!

So far, only Maria Bartiromo has picked up on the point about increased Capital Gains next year and beyond as a possible cause for massive selling, being decided by our solons on the hill. I recently espied a history of CG tax changes for the past 20 years and was amazed at the various changes at different income levels every two years or so - how is it possible for a tax advisor to instruct their clients?

Last week's Indicators were as benign as the markets were volatile - although they stayed within the TR (trading range) of 10,250 to just below 9,900, at Support:
The McClellan Oscillator and Summation are starting to reach oversold areas, and the AAII Bulls/Bears ratio remianed pleasantly inverted -37 to 40. MMF flows were out of the funds, but probably into safe haven bonds. While CEO Insider selling quieted down from April's deluge.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	9931	10136	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2219	2257	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1064	1089	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	60	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	35.5	32.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-30	-14	108	-123
McClellan Sum:	-307	-230	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	39.8	39.3	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	28.4	29.2	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	37.1	29.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	40.8	50.9	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	1.14	1.03	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-14.3B
Money Market Flows	-9.6B	5B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Apr.831B	Mar.805B
Baltic Dry Index:	3933	4078	11700	663
Bullish %:	45	48	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	12:1	2:1	108:1	2:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

THE CHICKEN OR THE EGG?: