Monday, May 3, 2010

PERFECT STORM?:

Almost every analyst is calling for at least a 10% upmove in stocks for the near future, based on fundamental, historical, and cyclical factors, including lack of alternatives with low rates. Sentiment continues to be at extremes, however, indicating hiccups or even burps in the short term.
To coin a phrase, "It is necessary to clean the house before throwing a party!". Warnings continue from last week, including another magazine cover - Barron's - with a Bear getting impaled by a locomotive. Advance/declines and the McClellan Oscillator suffered with another Friday fear selloff, although new highs abound. Insider Selling was record, although suspect due to several "n/a's" from 3 sectors. Without them it tripled the previous week to 154:1. Money is trickling out of MMFs and starting to trickle into domestic equity mutual funds.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1100811204140936626
Nasdaq:2461253028051114
S&P 500:118612171561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 525196-10/0846-1/03
VIX:22.016.6908.8
McClellan Osc:-3220108-100
McClellan Sum:113312181568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
54.053.36322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
18.017.454.416
AAII Bull:
41.438.1n/an/a
AAII Bear:
28.634.3n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:1.191.272.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a               2.8B
Money Market Flows-6B-35B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsMar.805BFeb.750B

Baltic Dry Index:3354300611700663
Bullish %:
8487882
Insider Corporate Sellers:154:1?52:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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