In heuristic fashion, every analysts is calling for at least a 10% run up in the next few months - even the credible ones. Short term, however, breadth and Sentiment are calling for a respite in this Too-Strong-To Fail market.
The outstanding Indicator is the CEO Insider selling ratio, at 91:1 last week, almost at its record high of last year. This small sampling has a 100% success rate in calling for at least a brief Trading Range, if not a downturn. Bullish % is 1 point away from its high, and the Inv.Intell. Bulls broke 50, at 51.1%, with Bears remaining under 20%.
Money flew out of MMFs at a $50B rate, and Volume was high last week - although the Wednesday up thrust outgained Friday's selloff. New highs ran up to 950 (vs. 18 NLs).
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
DJIA: | 11018 | 10997 | 14093 | 6626 |
Nasdaq: | 2481 | 2454 | 2805 | 1114 |
S&P 500: | 1192 | 1194 | 1561 | 683 |
CBOE Eq. put/call: | 42 | 48 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
VIX: | 18.4 | 16.1 | 90 | 8.8 |
McClellan Osc: | -29 | 3 | 108 | -100 |
McClellan Sum: | 1241 | 1241 | 1568 | -1514 |
Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 51.1 | 48.9 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 18.9 | 18.9 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 48.5 | 42.9 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 29.7 | 30.4 | n/a | n/a |
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | 0.86 | 0.94 | 2.2 | 0.56 |
US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | 2B | ||
Money Market Flows | -51B | -18B | ||
ETF equity:Monthly Totals | Feb.750B | Jan.731B | ||
Baltic Dry Index: | 3009 | 2922 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 87 | 86 | 88 | 2 |
Insider Corporate Sellers: | 91:1 | 45:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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