If Gloom and Doom signifies a bottom (or at least a temporary respite in the monthly slide of the markets), Barron's led the way last week - column titles included: Worst may be ahead; Treasurys no haven; Asia's slide may be far from over; Making problem worse; Make or break time, etc.
Add to that Alan Abelson's column stating Consumer expectations at 27 - much lower than the previous 1973 low of 45; and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence is at 25 - all time low!
Several Sentiment Indicators are starting to reach extremes as the DJIA breaks 12-year levels: New highs to lows are still terrible (almost 1:100); the McClellan Oscillator -ratio adjusted- is off the previous week lows of -91 to -62 (still oversold).
Newsletter surveys get more Bearishly inverted (see below); Bullish per cent at 22 is at previous support levels, but will probably go lower soon, along with the markets - and money is flowing out of equity mutual funds into money markets.
Finally, the Volume on the SDS (short SPY) is near record highs.
Maybe paycheck money (from those still working) can start a weak rally until they get their monthly brokerage statements.
Here are the stats:
MktSentiment. 2/27/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 7062………7365.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1377……….1441…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 735………..770………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……69………..87……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 46……….49…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………-62……….-96……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-542…….-180……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…28.6………..31.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 45.1……….41.1……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.3/55.1….21.6/56.7…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63………66……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1986……..2099…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…22………….28………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 7:1…..4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(6.4)……(.7B)…
ETF InflowsL……… (.2B)…….(5.5B)…
Money Market Inflows: 8B……..(16B)… ………144B (9/08)
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment