Paradoxically, the only way out of the current morass is to do what got us into it - stop saving, as the Fed lowers cash interest rates, and buy stuff on credit (the Gov'ts), autos (with zero down payments) and even houses by small down payments (the FHA will loan us the rest).
Part of the January Barometer - the first full week/ five days - was barely positive, which has been given back to date. Hopefully an Obama Bounce will also put the month positive - both indicators have an 85-91% success rate ( of course, helped by the fact that the above gains are contained in the annual figure! Heisenberg's Law).
Last weeks selloff retracement was presaged by a record McClellan Oscillator (108), now down to 41; insider selling by key executives jumped from a holiday low to 15:1, and money market funds inherited a bundle of money last week. Newsletter surveys have turned more complacently Bullish for the first time in awhile.
N.B.- After reading the excellent book by Niall Ferguson - The Ascent of Money - I noticed that a PBS television program of the same name is scheduled for this Tuesday, 10 p.m. (local Ch.9).
Here are last weeks figures:
MktSentiment. 1/09/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8599………..9034………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1571………..1632…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 890………. 931………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……79…………63………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 43………..39…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………41………….108nh……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…333………….-87……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.8…………38.5……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.5…………38.5……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……48.7/35.1……24.0/54.7…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..72…………..89……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……773………….818…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…69…………..63buy……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 15:1…..3.0:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows ..1.4B……….(1.8B)…
ETF InflowsL………1.6B………..(1.1B)… ……
Money Market Inflows: 54B………..18B… ………144B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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