SEE YOU LATER, AGGREGATOR:

Now the gov't wants to put all the "Bad bank" assets into a separate account - isn't that what Enron did offshore a few years ago? Wouldn't it be better to let the gamblers take the hits? Every bailout sets a precedent for the future and encourages more risk-taking despite more clarity and regulation (which people do not follow in times of herdlike greed anyway).
So much for the January "Defect" - unless we have a super rally soon, the January barometer will prognosticate a down year for '09, which is one of the better than average years in the Decennial cycle (but watch out for 2010, the worst of the 10).
Last week was pretty forgetable in the sentiment area, with only Money Market outflows ($19B) the exception - first time in many months that these inflows reversed materially. Also notable was the Baltic Dry Index, the proxy for global economic health, which has turned up rather strongly lately.
Haletosis (bad breadth) was rampant for the 4 days and the Bullish Per Cent at 46 is still on a Sell signal.
Here are the sentiment numbers:
MktSentiment. 1/23/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA …........……. 8077………..8281.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq……....…. 1477……… 1529…………2810.............1114
S&P500……......... 831……… 850………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……77………93………..79………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ……...............…. 47………46…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc.....………-31…………-9……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……....….…143…………278……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:...…..…38.7…………43……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………........… .... 36.7………..34.4……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ......……27.2/46.3……27.6/47.4…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..75………….76……………..91
Baltic Dry Index …...…980………….881…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….......…46sell……….50sell……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 11:1……13:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows … .4B………… .5B
ETF InflowsL………......(5.1B)…………(4.2B)……
Money Market Inflows: (19B)……….17B… ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SEE YOU LATER, AGGREGATOR:

OBAMA INAUGARATION:

What does it Augur for the Nation? So far the January Defect is not too supportive of the incoming regime, although the first 5 days of January were up slightly ( 6 S&P points), we dropped over 50 since then. Now we hope to regain that before month's end to keep the year positive (85 and 91% predictive for weekly and monthly price action). This is partly due to the Heisenberg principle that the week and month are PART OF the yearly statistic.
The extreme standouts this week for sentiment are the CBOE put/call ratio, at a Bullish (for the market) 93, and the AAII bull/bear ratio at 27/47! The Investor's Intelligence survey of 100 advisory letters does not, however, reflect this same ratio.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 1/16/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8281……….. 8599.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1529……….1571…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 850……….890………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……93………..79………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 46……….43…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-9…………..41……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…278………..333……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…43………….41.8……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 34.4……….38.5……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……27.6/47.4….48.7/35.1…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..76…………72……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……881……….….872…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…50sell………….69……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 13:1……15:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …5B…………1.4B
ETF InflowsL………(4.2B)…………1.6B……
Money Market Inflows: 17B…………54B… ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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OBAMA INAUGARATION:

WILL THE YEAR OF THE OX GET GORED?:

In his epic book - Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Taleb tells of a child who touches a hot stove, and afterward refuses to touch either a hot or cold one. It seems, as shown by Volume, that Investors feel this way, after being "burned" by last fall's huge decline in the markets.
Paradoxically, the only way out of the current morass is to do what got us into it - stop saving, as the Fed lowers cash interest rates, and buy stuff on credit (the Gov'ts), autos (with zero down payments) and even houses by small down payments (the FHA will loan us the rest).
Part of the January Barometer - the first full week/ five days - was barely positive, which has been given back to date. Hopefully an Obama Bounce will also put the month positive - both indicators have an 85-91% success rate ( of course, helped by the fact that the above gains are contained in the annual figure! Heisenberg's Law).
Last weeks selloff retracement was presaged by a record McClellan Oscillator (108), now down to 41; insider selling by key executives jumped from a holiday low to 15:1, and money market funds inherited a bundle of money last week. Newsletter surveys have turned more complacently Bullish for the first time in awhile.
N.B.- After reading the excellent book by Niall Ferguson - The Ascent of Money - I noticed that a PBS television program of the same name is scheduled for this Tuesday, 10 p.m. (local Ch.9).
Here are last weeks figures:

MktSentiment. 1/09/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8599………..9034………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1571………..1632…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 890………. 931………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……79…………63………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43………..39…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………41………….108nh……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…333………….-87……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.8…………38.5……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.5…………38.5……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……48.7/35.1……24.0/54.7…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..72…………..89……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……773………….818…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…69…………..63buy……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 15:1…..3.0:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows ..1.4B……….(1.8B)…
ETF InflowsL………1.6B………..(1.1B)… ……
Money Market Inflows: 54B………..18B… ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WILL THE YEAR OF THE OX GET GORED?:

TGINY:

Thank goodness it's a new year: The Santa Claus rally (last week of the year) lasted 1 day into the new year and sentiment signals are still mixed - some powerfully so.
With the NYSE advance/declines at 10:1 last week and the Nasdaq new lows to highs at 10:1, we could go either way in this Obama honeymoon/nightmare. The McClellan Oscillator hit a new high of 108 (overbought); the Bullish per cent went on a buy signal at 63, but is getting toppy, and the Inv. Intell. Bulls/Bears went to dead even, while the AAII ratio is still very cautious.
The new Market Vane Bond Bullish number presaged the recent drop in Treas. at 91, now 89. This could be the next safety Bubble, now or later.
Insider selling and SDS (short SPX etf) volumes are quite low, partially due to the holidays.
Sentimentrader.com reports mutual fund cash rose higher than money in equity funds for the first time, after being only 48% a year ago. Also the AAII has an even balance at 42% cash (highest ever)/42% stocks.
Worries ahead: commercial real estate is beginning to implode (malls, hotels, etc.); heretofore safe mortgages are beginning a 2-year reset agenda, and, as Niall Ferguson of the excellent book The Ascent of Money reports - the Fed is now margined at 50:1! Sound familiar?
MktSentiment. 1/02/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9034………..8515………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1632………. 1530…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 931………..872………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……63………….60………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 39…………43…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………108nh……….51……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-87………….-377……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…38.5………….35.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.5…………38.2……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.0/54.7……29.0/43.6…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..89………….91……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……773………….818…………………………………663
Public/NYSE Spec.-…discont. n/a (pay svc).. … …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…63buy………….54……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 3.0:1……5.4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows ..(1.8B)……….(1.3B)
ETF InflowsL………(1.1B)………7.6B……
Money Market Inflows: 18B……….28B… ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

TGINY: