FAUX RALLY OR FOR REAL?:

Sentiment and breadth indicators are entering the extreme area of oversold, unless a Black Swan of credit derivatives (the number "notional Quadrillions" is entering the lexicon) sabotage a needed rally.
Technician Walter Deemer reports that both the Leuthold and Lowry market indicators are projecting a bottom, $500B have gone into money market funds in the 1st quarter of 2008 ($94B went in just last week, and $22B into ETFs); and the 4-year Kinchen, or Presidential cycle also calls for a bottom. Indices are also nearing their 2008 (Jan, Mar. lows).
Most egregious is the CBOE put/call ratio now at 82, higher than last week's 79; Bullish per cent is entering its low zone at 40 (% of stocks on buy signals), although this could get down into the teens.
Although the current inversion of the AAII bull/bear survey is not uncommon, for the Investors Intelligence survey to do so is very rare.
Here are the levels:

MktSentiment. 6/20/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 11842………..12307………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2406…………2454…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1317…………1360…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …82……………79……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 22.8………….21.2…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br

McClellan Osc………..-61………..-32……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-194……………-15…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.3………….43……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 37.4…………32.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.0/45.7…….31.3/53.6……..n/a n/a
IBD: Short Interest- 15.0nh…………13.8…………15.0………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…13.7…………15.4…….….21bl…………..1.0br
Bullish%- ………….40…………44…….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.14:1……..10:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Energy Most Sellers: Consumer non-durables

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FAUX RALLY OR FOR REAL?: