BASKET CASE-GOLD:

A Catch-22 side effect of Gold and other commodity ETF baskets recently surfaced - when GLD, which is backed by 18M oz. , experienced a selloff of shares, they had to sell 1/8 of the total spot gold - almost 2M oz.- which brought down the price of gold, causing others to sell shares, etc. etc. We can expect such volatility in others, such as grains, oil, other metals.
Meanwhile, this extended Bear rally (?) is getting long in the tooth - 2 months of a-b-c up to resistance ( on less than convincing Volume), and John Roque of Natexis' has a target of 1415 SPX which it just hit and backed off.
With the breadth indicators - McClellan Oscillator and Bullish per cent - occupying middle ground, many Sentiment factors are also mid-range. One extreme is the Nasdaq to NYSE Volume (speculation) which is at new highs -182! Also at a record is Money Market outflows - must have been that last rate cut- at -$61B.
With the help of the uptick rule loss, short interest is at a record 12.58 on the IBD scale. Finally, legal Insider selling is back up to 25:1, with Consumer Services topping both the Buy and Sell sectors.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 5/2/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13058………..12891………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2477………….2422…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1413………….1397…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …66……………..67……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 18.2…………19.6…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 30……………45…………..76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………37…………..33……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………209…………….55…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.9…………39.1……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 31.8…………35.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……53.3/26.3……46.7/27.5……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…52……………51…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 12.58nh…….11.57nh……………12.58………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.1……….12.1……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………38/28…….38/28
Bullish%- …………54……….52buy……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.25:1……17:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Consumer Svc
Most Sellers: Consumer Svc (1/3 of total)

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BASKET CASE-GOLD: