Monday, April 14, 2008

SIDEWAYS:

When a drug deal goes bad they call it "going sideways"; when a market does it, it's not so bad. It's a good environment for selling puts or covered calls, dividend stocks, etc. The S&P 500 (SPX) is exactly where it was on Jan.17 this year. Vince Farrell said it best on CNBC - "It's a good time to Rent stocks, not Buy them" . Still, top Insider Buying is with Finance stocks, as bad as that sector seems - total is only 7:1 (see below).
Many sentiment indicators are regressing to the mean lately, although the CBOE put/call is still high at 84, and the IBD short interest is at a record high.
Barron's was kind enough to plug the local TA conference this week in their Preview section - that is , the AAPTA, TSAA one featuring Larry McMillan, Linda Raschke, Paul Desmond of Lowry's, economic advisor Donald DeLutis, et.al., occurring this Friday and Saturday - see TSAASF.org for details, or if you are distant, as many readers from Channel Islands, Argentina, Spain, Israel, etc. are, you can check the URL later for a recap.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/11/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12325………12609………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2290…………2370…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1332…………1370…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …84…………..95……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.4…………22.4…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 72……………73…………..76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-6…………..54……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-162…………..-285…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.4……….36.4……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 38.5……….37.5………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……45.8/37.3……36.7/39.4……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…50………….50…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 10.5……….8.74……………10.5………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.9………12.6……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………30/40…….50/25
Bullish%- …………48………..52……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.7:1……..15:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/4)
Most Sellers: Energy

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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