BONUS COVERAGE:

The recent March low (second of '08s Double Bottom formation) had some absolute and relative extremes in Sentiment land. The CBOE Equity put/call ratio of 94 was prominent; the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indices, oversold at -65 and -650, respectively, called for a rally. The SPX was 7% under its 200-day MA, Bullish per cent was on a Buy signal, and both Inv.Intell. and AAII Bull/Bear surveys were inverted, a rarity. For the full matrix of March and other market bottom levels, please e-mail: leonbrnt@aol.com. You may also request being added to the e-mail alert distribution list.
Minimum measurement of the double top could take us to the Sept. and Dec. highs on the SPX and DJIA. However, upside momentum is easing at month end, both in Volume and Sentiment's retracement to the middle.Both the surveys have regained the positive Bull dominance, CEO Insider selling abated from a high 27:1 down to 17:1, still recently high. The IBD short interest ratio went ot a new 5-year high, and Bullish percent whipsawed back to a Buy signal.
Here is the matrix:
MktSentiment. 4/25/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12891………..12849………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2422………….2402…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1397………….1390…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …67…………….74……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 19.6…………20.1…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 45…………..60…………..76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………33………….53……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………55…………….-65…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…39.1……….37.8……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 35.6………..38.9………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……46.7/27.5…..30.4/48.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…51………….46…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 11.57nh……10.95……………11.57………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.1……….12.7……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………38/28…….48/28
Bullish%- …………52buy……48sell……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.17:1…..27:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/2 total)
Most Sellers: Energy

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BONUS COVERAGE:

GET SHORTY:

Like many longterm Sentiment and Supply/Demand indicators, Short Interest cannot be closely correlated to price action, but it is obvious that if a record amount of it exists, it will add fuel to a rise in prices, with so many tyro money managers/hedge funds tuned to the same channel and shorting the markets. A recent Barron's reported the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had 150% of its shares shorted; the Retail Spider (XRT) had 670%, homebuilders (XHB) 177%, and Real Estate (IYR) 133%.
Overall markets are reporting SI semi-monthly now, which is very high. Whether that was a major cause of Friday's huge up day, or option expiration, is debatable, but there was no followthrough today (Monday).
Almost all the CNBC and print pundits opine that we are at "A" bottom, and the wisdom at the weekend's excellent AAPTA/TSAA Conference was also mixed. As Editor of the TSAA Quarterly Review, I will be synopsizing and reproducing documents from that event in the upcoming newsletter shortly. The speakers as a whole gave historical, lively, and humorous talks that were both professional and actionable.
As expected, last week's Resistance-breaking rally caused Sentiment to regress from Bearish in many cases, including the McClellan Oscillator which ended at +53, recently a topping area; the IBD short interest was at a new record high; the Bullish per cent went on a SELL signal, although it is still in the lower area of the PNF chart. Completing the mixed picture is the bullish inversion of both the AAII and Inv.Intell. surveys on bullish/bearish positions, yet corporate insider selling screamed to the upside at 27:1!
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 4/18/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12849……….12325………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2402…………2290…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1390…………1332…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …74……………84……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 20.1………….23.4…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 60…………..72…………..76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………53………….-6……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-65……………-162…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.8……….37.4……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 38.9………38.5………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……30.4/48.7…..45.8/37.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…46………….50…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 10.95nh…..10.5……………10.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.2………12.9……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………48/28…….30/40
Bullish%- …………48sell…….48……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.27:1……7:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Consumer Services
Most Sellers: Energy

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GET SHORTY:

SIDEWAYS:

When a drug deal goes bad they call it "going sideways"; when a market does it, it's not so bad. It's a good environment for selling puts or covered calls, dividend stocks, etc. The S&P 500 (SPX) is exactly where it was on Jan.17 this year. Vince Farrell said it best on CNBC - "It's a good time to Rent stocks, not Buy them" . Still, top Insider Buying is with Finance stocks, as bad as that sector seems - total is only 7:1 (see below).
Many sentiment indicators are regressing to the mean lately, although the CBOE put/call is still high at 84, and the IBD short interest is at a record high.
Barron's was kind enough to plug the local TA conference this week in their Preview section - that is , the AAPTA, TSAA one featuring Larry McMillan, Linda Raschke, Paul Desmond of Lowry's, economic advisor Donald DeLutis, et.al., occurring this Friday and Saturday - see TSAASF.org for details, or if you are distant, as many readers from Channel Islands, Argentina, Spain, Israel, etc. are, you can check the URL later for a recap.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/11/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12325………12609………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2290…………2370…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1332…………1370…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …84…………..95……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.4…………22.4…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 72……………73…………..76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-6…………..54……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-162…………..-285…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.4……….36.4……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 38.5……….37.5………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……45.8/37.3……36.7/39.4……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…50………….50…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 10.5……….8.74……………10.5………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.9………12.6……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………30/40…….50/25
Bullish%- …………48………..52……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.7:1……..15:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/4)
Most Sellers: Energy

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SIDEWAYS:

BULL ROAR:

Sentiment, liquidity - both home and abroad- shortcovering and many technicals (breadth) have turned around a Bear market, at least for now. Some Resistance does loom overhead (12,700-740 on the DJIA, 1405-30 on the SPX). Whenever bad news (such as WaMu, today) is ignored by the market, the bulls win.
Some of the Sentiment standout extremes last week include: NY Advance/Declines were positive for the first time in months, and Money Markets had outflows, also for the first time since the end of '07. The A/D pushed the McClellan Oscillator above 50, at 54, which along with the aforementioned Resistance, might slow down the upsurge.
Although the AAII Bull/Bear survey is still inverted, the Inv.Intell. and Market Vane are way complacent. Legal insider selling shot up to 15:1, albeit still low, with Healthcare leading the buyers and Energy leading the Sellers bigtime. Finally, speculative OTC Volume vs. NYSE is 163%, getting a bit toppy.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/04/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12609……..12216………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2370……….2261…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1370……….1315…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …95………….76……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 22.4………..25.7…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 73………….70……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………54………….0……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-285…………-511…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…56.5……….36.7……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 25.0……….41.1………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……36.7/39.4…..41.6/33.6……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…50………….48…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 8.74………. 9.73……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.6………15.5……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25…….50/25
Bullish%- …………52……….40……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.15:1……9:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare
Most Sellers: Energy (1/3 of total)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BULL ROAR: