Newsletter surveys (which are out on Wednesday - at the start of the recent decline) seem to be buying into the rally. Fortunately, a couple of extremes are boding favorably for a Santa rally (which normally occurs between Xmas and New Year's): the CBOE Equity put/call ratio shot up to 84 last week, just off its '04 high of 87; the UBS Investor confidence (a monthly figure) is way low at 44. Cash is exiting Mutual Funds, but zooming into ETFs, while money market inflows abated considerably.
Finally, Insider selling action shot up to 22:1, with Healthcare the new leader.
Here are the stats:
Mktsentiment. 12/14/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW
DJIA ………. 13339………..13625………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2635………….2706…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1467…………1504…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …84……………65……………91…..........46-1/03
VIX ………. 23.3…………20.8…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05
Intrade.com-
Recession% 47……………44……………59(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-17…………58……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-324…………..-439…………..1568-6/03.......-917
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…53.3…………49.4………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 25.6…………27.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.6/35.7…….40.7/39.8……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…58……………56…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..44!nl ………70 ………178……………44
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.72…………8.57….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…14.7………….14…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………51.7/24.1……..48.3/27.6
Bullish%- ………52………………53……….…88 -2/04...... 36
*Insider corporate sellers.22:1………14:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Healthcare
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