Monday, June 25, 2007

SPECIAL TREATMENT:

Occasionally, Sentiment Indicators come and they go - as Charles Gasparini of WSJ reports, the Specialist shorting may be one that goes!. He claims that around Labor Day this year, the last of the floor Specialists on the NYSE will have folded their tents, thanks to John Thain's inevitable (?) electrifying of the exchange.
Although new highs dominated new lows last week 3:1, even on the Nasdaq which doesn't consist of 50% non-common ( preferred, ETFs, etc.) stocks, the Selling Volume on Friday was huge - 2.6B on the NYSE, 3.5B on the Nasdaq.
Advance/Decline breadth, exactly 2:1 decliners, was the most issues down since late Feb., the last major selloff. Short interest is again a record at 8 days to cover on the NYSE, and IBD's number is also a new high at 7.82.
Despite the ugly week, surveys were for the most part bullish, with Inv.Intell. Bears at their lowest level since July 2004, at 18+; even the AAII reversed positions to 43:33.
Finally, corporate Insider sold at a 61 to 1 ratio, with Tech sellers 100 to 1 over buyers.
Here are the numbers:
Mktsentiment. 6/22/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 13360...........13668...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2588............2627.............1114
S&P500…….. 1502............1536............776
CBOE Eq. put/call ….62............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 15.7..........44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 127...........299-12/04.......58 - 3/9/07
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc……………-35...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 248..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..53.3...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 18.9 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………43.2/33.7....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 71......... 74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….7.82nh……7.82………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..6.59………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………35.2/29.4
Bullish%- ……….…75...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers 61:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare, Finance (25 sellers:1)
Most Sellers: Tech (100 sellers:1)

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