Monday, March 19, 2007

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!:

Despite today's 100+ upday following the quadwitch expiry, based on lower highs and lows we are still in a negative, correctional downtrend, with Resistance and Support between the 50- and 200-day MAs and horizontal Resistances/Supports at 12,335 and 11,953 on the DJIA.
Huge ETF inflows last week of $10B add to the Contrarian's delight, although some notable Bullish stats include a CBOE put/call ratio of 84 (near the 5 year high of 87), and the AAII Bull/Bear inversion of 33/45.
The Birinyi Bull/Bear bloggers poll reversed from 42.1% Bears to Bulls. Meanwhile, Money Market Funds are at record high levels of $2.4T.

Mktsentiment. 3/16/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12110...........12767...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2372............2515............1114
S&P500…….. 1386............1455............776
CBOE Equity put/call .84............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 16.79.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 96...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-9...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 436...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..45.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 28.9 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……….33/45.4....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 65......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………42.1/13.2
Bullish%- ……….…68...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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