CYCLE-ANALYSIS:

A recent IBD chart illustrated the difference between Buying $10,000 of the DJIA from Nov.1 to Apr.30 ( and switching to Treasuries for the remainder of the year) versus Buying the DJIA from May 1 to Oct.31. The resulting returns over the last 55 years were $492,060 and $9,682 ( or a $318 loss), respectively! Guess what? We're almost there; and the average Bull market of around 3 years is well into the third year, and looking a little tired lately.
The Advance/Decline on the NYSE went negative for the first time in awhile; the complacent VIX is at another new recent low of 11.1; Nasdaq Volume to NYSE is about at parity; but most spectacular of all was the change in the Public to Specialist Shorting ratio down to 1.18, from 1.96 a week ago. This narrow range saw .69 as its 5 year low in March, '00 - a secular top - and a high of 2.58 at last August's low. All other Indicators fall within normal range.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CYCLE-ANALYSIS: