BELATED BLOG

Here is the current Sentiment data, delayed by the PC's four day stay in its Hospital trying (unsuccessfully) for a fix. Not the best time to disconnect - after 500 points in 2 days.

The CBOE put/call ratio and McClellan Oscillator intimated a Buy signal for Monday, as did the VIX rising 30%. All else remains the same:

Date>		1/24/2014	1/17/2014
Indices:	DJIA	15879	16458
	NAZ	4128	4197
	SPX	1790	1838
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.6/3.1	10.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.77	2.94
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		18.14	12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1088/2130	1700/1493
Weekly Net:		-1042	207
Cumulative:		154105	155147
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	366/91	455/63
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	412/59	481/59
McClellan	Oscillator	-31	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	622	584
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.6	56.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.1	15.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.1	39
	Bear	23.8	21.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	7/21k	3/28k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(46k)	(45k)
CEOinsider	selling	70:1	108:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	200:70	130:15*
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.4B	(14B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		999/395/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.35%	0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BELATED BLOG

JANUARY SALES

Although most Sentiment Indicators are coming off extreme highs, nearly all have regressed to the mean last week. Still exceptionally high are the Insider Sales of company stocks, especially the Board and Officers contingent, with over ninety percent of these from exercised stock options (year end).
Despite market weakness, breadth remains strong, via A/D and New Highs to Lows.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		1/17/2014	1/10/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16458	16437
	NAZ	4197	4174
	SPX	1838	1842
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.6/3.6	11.1/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.94	3.17
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1700/1493	2058/1147
Weekly Net:		207	911
Cumulative:		155147	154940
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	455/63	418/45
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	481/59	470/51
McClellan	Oscillator	16	33
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	584	479
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.1	60.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.3	15.2
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39	43.6
	Bear	21.5	25
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	3/28k	4/32k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(45k)	(42k)
CEOinsider	selling	108:1	106:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	130:15*	230:6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(14B)	(4.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	999/395/248	NOV.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

JANUARY SALES

What's Your Deal?

The phrase of the week is from Pete Carroll, then Coach of the USC Trojans to Jim Harbaugh, Stanford Coach, when he seemed to run up the score of a game before each of them "turned" Pro. Next Sunday should be quite a game.

In other Sentiment news, most Indicators backed off from their Extreme  highs last week, with a couple exceptions. Breadth, as measured by A/D (advance and declines) were strong, especially the new highs to lows - both NYSE and NAS 10:1. And the latter's Volume to NYSE hit a RECORD HIGH of 3.17:1 - very speculative!

Investors Intelligence Bulls were still over 60%, and the Insider Selling continues at a record pace, both the 10% stock owners and the Officers/Board that I am starting to track a la finviz.com.

More commentary and investment meetups can be found at: 
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		1/10/2014	1/3/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16437	16469
	NAZ	4174	4131
	SPX	1842	1831
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	11.1/3.5	6.1/2.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.17	2.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	51	52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2058/1147	1530/1582
Weekly Net:		911	-52
Cumulative:		154940	154029
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	418/45	395/101
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	470/51	387/38
McClellan	Oscillator	33	29
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	479	361
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	60.6	61.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.2	15.2
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.6	43.1
	Bear	25	29.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4/32k	N/A-hol.
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(42k)	N/A-hol.
CEOinsider	selling	106:1	208:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	230:6	300s:1s
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	3.3B	.25B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(4.2B)	24B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		424B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	NOV.	999/395/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.39%	0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

What's Your Deal?

STALL SPEED

And the Sentiment Indicators continue to get more Extreme! Margin Debt,at absurd low interest rate levels, continues to rise, as record Insider Sellers ( Officers and Board members) dump shares. 2013 saw records (or near-) in stock buybacks, new market highs, etc.

More info at: 

 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

once one gets through the popups!

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week, including the monthly ETF flows - Equity, Int'l, and Bonds.

 

Date>		1/3/2014	12/27/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16469	16478
	NAZ	4131	4156
	SPX	1831	1841
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	6.1/2.2	5.0/1.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.77	2.94
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.8	12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1530/1582	2164/1028
Weekly Net:		-52	1136
Cumulative:		154029	154081
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	395/101	533/121
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	387/38	556/44
McClellan	Oscillator	29	43
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	361	233
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	61.6	59.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.2	14.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	43.1	55.1
	Bear	29.3	18.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	N/A-hol.	n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	N/A-hol.
CEOinsider	selling	208:1	224:1hugest
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	300s:1s
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	.25B	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	24B	22.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	424B	1 month
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	999/395/248	NOV.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

STALL SPEED

YEAR END SALE

In nearly 20 years of tracking stock market sentiment data since receiving my CMT (technican) designation on Sentiment, I have never seen so many extremes as last week, partly due to the end of the year reckoning - to see more comments, please click on my Examiner.com column describing these numbers below:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

The most glaring, was in my new-found area of Insider Trading (legal), separating the Officers and Board members from the less informed holders of 10% of the stock, often bundled together.

 

Date>		12/27/2013	12/20/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16478	16221
	NAZ	4156	4104
	SPX	1841	1818
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	5.0/1.7	10.7/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.94	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2164/1028	2361/851
Weekly Net:		1136	1510
Cumulative:		154081	152945
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	533/121	398/255
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	556/44	396/109
McClellan	Oscillator	43	28
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	233	40
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	59.6	57.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	55.1	47.5
	Bear	18.5	25.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	n/a	17/16
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000		(27K)
CEOinsider	selling	224:1hug-est	106:1hug-er
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	22.1B	(34.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	1 month
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	pending
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

YEAR END SALE

Year End Sales

Year end fund flows are in, per Barron's this week:

Stock funds, despite rumors that the public is not in the markets yet, took in a ten-year record $1/4T; Bonds took in $100B at the first of the year, then took it back out, for dead even.
MMFs (money markets) had out flows for the fifth straight year, and commodities had negative flows for the first time on record.

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week:

Date>		12/20/2013	12/13/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16221	15755
	NAZ	4104	4000
	SPX	1818	1775
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.7/4.8	8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.62
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.8	15.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2361/851	875/2324
Weekly Net:		1510	-1449
Cumulative:		152945	151435
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	398/255	269/401
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	396/109	281/125
McClellan	Oscillator	28	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	40	29
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.1	58.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47.5	41.3
	Bear	25.1	25
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	17/16	13/22
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(27K)	(29k)
CEOinsider	selling	106:1huger	75:1huge
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows		WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B		7.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.39%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Year End Sales

Beware The Bear

For the second week in a row, the Advance/Decline was negative - much more than the prior week. Most extreme was the Insider Selling Volume - HUGE- and the ratio was 75 to 1 over Buyers. This is not as great an indicator, since it comingles 10% stock holders along with the Board members and Officers-  the latter being the most informed. Still...

The McClellan oscillator, near the minus 50 level, at -38, could have foretold the nice Monday rally, but no more than that.

Date>		12/13/2013	12/6/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15755	16020
	NAZ	4000	4062
	SPX	1775	1805
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.9/3.4	8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.62	2.47
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.8	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		875/2324	1059/2133
Weekly Net:		-1449	-1074
Cumulative:		151435	152884
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	269/401	323/259
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	281/125	386/83
McClellan	Oscillator	-38	-18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	29	213
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	58.2	57.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	41.3	42.6
	Bear	25	27.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	13/22	6/25
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(29k)	(22k)
CEOinsider	selling	75:1huge	29:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.5B	24.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Beware The Bear