BEN-Official

Giving thanks to Bernanke for this wild ride in the stock market - he even alerted everyone, transparently, to what he was doing; yet only now are investors tiptoeing into U.S equities. Will he be around when it is time to depart? Just like the stockbroker who defines Long Term hold as up to when he retires from his firm.

Just like Groundhog Day, new highs in the markets abound, every day. Just for comparison, listed below are the multi-year highs as well as last weeks Indicators:

Date>		11/22/2013	11/15/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16064	15961
	NAZ	3991	1985
	SPX	1804	1798
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.6/3.2	8.9/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.7	2.7
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.3	12.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1484/1718	2049/1140
Weekly Net:		-234	909
Cumulative:		153443	153677
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	458/150	420/124
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	444/95	377/120
McClellan	Oscillator	2	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	325	393
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.6	52.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.5	15.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34.4	39.2
	Bear	29.5	27.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	15/18	12/23
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(51K)	(66k)
CEOinsider	selling	60:1	36:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	4.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.5B)	(3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.31%

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	16064	6626
	NAZ	3991	1114
	SPX	1804	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		154367	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.09:108	May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	(1514).
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	925/349/257
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BEN-Official

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

Sentiment Extremes this week include the number (%) of Bears in the Investors Intelligence survey (wire house reports) - a new multi-year low of 15.5%, down from 15.6% previously; meanwhile the Bulls are still above 50, at 52.6% - the AAII has backed off a bit from its extremes. Normally the AAII is the more meaningful, but they seem to be lulled into the Yellen glow.

The Bullish % rose to another recent high of 83% - of stocks on Buy signals. The VIX dropped to 12.2, still above its 8.8 many moons ago.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/15/2013	11/8/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15961	15761
	NAZ	1985	3919
	SPX	1798	1770
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.9/3.3	9.9/3.8
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.7	2.6
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.2	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2049/1140	1240/1961
Weekly Net:		909	-721
Cumulative:		153677	152768
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	420/124	389/107
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	377/120	372/129
McClellan	Oscillator	13	-32
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	393	463
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.6	55.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.5	15.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.2	45.5
	Bear	27.5	21.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12/23	10/20
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(66k)	(94k)
CEOinsider	selling	36:1	50:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	5.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.1B)	4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		Sept.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		Sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

THANK YE BERNANKE II

Here are last week's Sentiment numbers - still at high levels after gliding though most of the troublesome JASON semi-cycle for the stock market. Can it continue?:
More commentary at :
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
along with a schedule of local investment meetups.
Also worth noting - an update on my LEAP strategy from my talk last weekend at:

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com

Date>		11/8/2013	11/1/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15761	15615
	NAZ	3919	3922
	SPX	1770	1761
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.9/3.8	9.7/3.8
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.6	2.55
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1240/1961	1154/2032
Weekly Net:		-721	-878
Cumulative:		152768	153489
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	389/107	477/60
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	372/129	455/103
McClellan	Oscillator	-32	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	463	570
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.2	52.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.6	16.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.5	45
	Bear	21.8	21.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10/20	14/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(94k)	(82K)
CEOinsider	selling	50:1	69:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	4.3B	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	4B	1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Sept.	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	Sept.	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THANK YE BERNANKE II

THANKYE BERNANKE:

. Margin debt, currently over a record $400B, is due to speculation and low rates. Market breadth, as measure by Advance/Declines and New Highs v. Lows, is very strong now. The Bullish Per Cent, stocks on a BUY signal, is at recent record highs(see below). Money is FINALLY starting to flow into Mutual Funds, after a recent 25% market run up this year. (Legal) Insider Selling of key employees -CEOs, etc.- jumped again to 62 to 1 over Buyers.

Lastly, the Investors Intelligence Bull to Bear ratio is now more than 3 to 1, with levels at 52 and 16, respectively!! The AAII ratio is not much weaker.   

 More commentary can be found at:

 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		11/1/2013	10/25/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15615	15570
	NAZ	3922	3943
	SPX	1761	1759
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.7/3.8	9.6/3.5
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.55	2.74
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1154/2032	2047/1145
Weekly Net:		-878	902
Cumulative:		153489	154367
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	477/60	688/40
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	455/103	681/64
McClellan	Oscillator	-13	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	570	513
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.6	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	18.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45	*49.2
	Bear	21.5	**17.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	14/14	8/15
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(82K)	(78K)
CEOinsider	selling	69:1	41:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	9.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	1B	54B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.31%

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THANKYE BERNANKE:

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS:

Before viewing this week's Sentiment numbers, here is the multi-year highs and lows for each:

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	15658	6626
	NAZ	3943	1114
	SPX	1759	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		154367	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.'09:108	May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	(1514).
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	384B-May'13
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	925/349/257

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS:

WINTER IS ACUMEN IN:

As the cumulus clouds accumulate for the winter, so do the worry clouds of Sentiment gather!
The excellent commentary from Barron's and elsewhere combine with the Sentiment Indicators to cause concern about the future:
Margin Debt, which is stated monthly, is at record high, as traders use low interest rates to escape zirp (zero rates); Barron's Big Money poll of their expert money managers shows only 8% are Bearish, as Insider Selling stays at high levels with key employes/officers sell their company stock.
It has been over 500 days since the market has had a meaningful correction - not the longest, as stretches of twice and thrice that have occurred recently - ending in catastrophes of 2000 and 2008.

Money is racing into tech stocks like 1999 - PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, etc., as well as into unproven IPOs. Research charts I've saved show that the 1% of the rich versus everyone else is the highest since 1929; likewise, national debt to GDP is worse than 1929. With the Boomers retiring for the next two decades and the U.S. birthrate (as well as net immigration) declining, GDP looks to worsen to 2% or below, per national studies. Unemployment remains high, especially among the young, who are counted on to replenish Social Security and other entitlements (Obamacare), along with immigrants who are also low-earners.

Finally, my cycle work shows the 4-year President cycle tends consistently to sell off the second year of the election cycle (2014) as it has since WWII.

Here are the numbers: 

Date>		10/25/2013	10/18/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15570	15400

	NAZ	3943	3914
	SPX	1759	1744
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.6/3.5	8.8/3.7
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.74	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.1	13
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2047/1145	2539/642
Weekly Net:		902	1897
Cumulative:		154367	153465
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	688/40	581/125
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	681/64	576/59
McClellan	Oscillator	46	62
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	513	257
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	42.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.5	21.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	*49.2	46.3
	Bear	**17.6	24.9
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8/15	gov't
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(78K)	shutdown
CEOinsider	selling	41:1	38:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	54B	(52B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	*10 mo.hi
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	**21 mo.low
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WINTER IS ACUMEN IN:

J A S O N

Once again the Hallowe'en specter of JASON is almost past us: J-une through N-ovember! Historically this is the worse semi-annual cycle by far, compared to its complementary cycle. This year, despite the Walls of Worry we've been through, it wasn't that bad. The markets basically ignored the Divine Comedy of our government histrionics.

Now we seem to be in the sweet spot - the "Taper" has been put off by the postponements, and we enter the best months - Nov.- Jan. Speaking of cycles, one of the most reliable since WWII has been the 4- year Presidential, or Kinchen cycle - e.g. 2014, where there has always been a severe selloff (except for 1986, which was delayed until 1987 !!!). This is also an Election year.

Sentiment extremes this week include the massive outflows from MMFs - $52B, much into equity funds. "Legal" Insider Selling still remains high, versus Buying; and the McClellan Oscillator is now overbought at +62 with a 10:1 New Hi/Lo ratio on the NAS. Both the VIX and CBOE put/call ratios dropped into neutral.

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		10/18/2013	10/11/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15400	15237
	NAZ	3914	3791
	SPX	1744	1703
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.8/3.7	9.3/3.4
NASD/NYSE		2.38
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish			2.74
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	15.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2539/642	1784/1393
Weekly Net:		1897	391
Cumulative:		153465	151568
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	581/125	260/168
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	576/59	278/88
McClellan	Oscillator	62	11
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	257	123
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	42.3	45.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	46.3	41.3
	Bear	24.9	25.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	gov't	11/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	shutdown	-72
CEOinsider	selling	38:1	42:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(5.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(52B)	(19.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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J A S O N