unLABOR DAY

A week before Labor Day, everyone, including global economists at Jackson Hole, seems to be on vacation - with both NYSE and Nasdaq Volume below normal levels. However, the recent market decline has reversed, as has the NYSE Hi/Lo reading. The AAII Bull/Bear ratio inverted to the Bear side (Bullish for stocks); the Dollar hit a new recent Low, and MMF inflows continue to expand, as they leave equity funds and ETFs. But Margin Debt leapt back to all time highs, with low interest rates. Not a good sign for when rates rise again, just as with the national debt of $20T !!
Here are the numbers:

Date		8/25/2017	8/18/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21813	21674
	NAZ	6265	6216
	SPX	2443	2425
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.6/3.5	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.17	2.31
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	14.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	48	51
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2126/944	1386/1678
Weekly Net:		1182	-292
Cumulative:		178803	177621
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	207/203	164/245
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	152/222	147/282
McClellan	Oscillator	8	-49
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	172	241
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	48.1	50.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.1	34.2
	Bear	38.3	32.8
US$-WSJ		92.5	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	54
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(11.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	29,4B	12.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.17	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.33	1.31
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.1	114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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unLABOR DAY

WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

Because it is two-tired !!
That's the way the market seem these lazy days of summer - August.
Last week the NYSE New Highs to Lows went negative, following the week before's Nasdaq lead. Advance/decline stocks also went negative.
Stocks on a BUY signal are barely positive (54), while its twin, the Delta MACD is at 51.
 With no signs of a Recession or Inflation, hopefully it's just setting up for a correction or reaccumulation for another winter rally.

Here are the numbers:

Date		8/18/2017	8/11/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21674	21858
	NAZ	6216	6256
	SPX	2425	2441
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.9	9.5/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.3	15.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	60
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1386/1678	561/2527
Weekly Net:		-292	-1966
Cumulative:		177621	177913
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	164/245	259/231
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	147/282	244/297
McClellan	Oscillator	-49	-69
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	241	460
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	57.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.2	33.7
	Bear	32.8	32.3
US$-WSJ		93.4	93.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	54	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.6B	30B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.19
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??

August's second half and September are the worst time of year for the Stock Market - will the Fed keep raising rates to fight no imminent Inflation? We finally got a shot across the bow last week with a market downdraft of more than 1%, but have rallied almost all the way back in a retracement - the McClellan Oscillator gave us the clue at minus 69 (below 50), and the CBOE put/call option ratio spiked to 81 as the VIX almost doubled. MMFs flows jumped up from mutual funds, and NYSE Breadth was terrible. See below:

Date		8/11/2017	8/4/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21858	22092
	NAZ	6256	6351
	SPX	2441	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.5/4.0	9.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	81	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.5	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60	66.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		561/2527	1522/1546
Weekly Net:		-1966	-24
Cumulative:		177913	179879
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	259/231	388/131
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	244/297	298/216
McClellan	Oscillator	-69	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	460	711
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.5	60
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17	16.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.7	36.1
	Bear	32.3	32.1
US$-WSJ		93.1	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(3.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	30B	20.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.19	2.26
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	113.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??