HOW HIGH THE MOON

Markets continue to make new highs almost every day and week, despite all the global calamities from elections, firings, to rockets. In a recent excellent webinar by Option King Larry McMillan, he not only analyzes the VIX Indicator and its misuse, but opines that if the S&P 500 breaks above the May 9 closing high of 2401 and closes twice above that, the market should resume its uptrend. FANG stocks are also propelling the NASDAQ to new highs, although Inflation Adjusted, it is not quite the case.It broke 5000 in March of 2000. BTW - today's close of the SPX was 2402 !!!

Sentiment Indicators remain mostly the same except for Mutual fund flows out instead of in last week; The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed at its extreme of over 3:1 (normally a dangerous complacent signal). It was also noted that the NYSE Advance/Decline breadth numbers are not the best to use, as 30% of NYSE Volume nowadays is in ETFs, plus closed end funds, preferred stocks, etc.

Here are the numbers:

Date		5/12/2017	5/5/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20896	21006
	NAZ	6121	6100
	SPX	2390	2399
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.6/4.1	9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.34	2.25
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.4	10.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	55.4	60.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1352/1626	1548/1535
Weekly Net:		-274	13
Cumulative:		176539	176813
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	325/92	427/137
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	393/200	429/196
McClellan	Oscillator	-23	0
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	545	609
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.7	58.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	17.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.7	38.1
	Bear	30.2	29.9
US$-WSJ		99.2	98.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.2B)	1.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	March
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.3	1.31
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.8	113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOW HIGH THE MOON

M'AIDEZ (MAYDAY)

Today's stock markets were Underwhelmed by the victory in France of Macron over Le Pen. No surprise there, like Brexit and Trump. Although last week hit some new highs, markets are climbing out of Saucer formations moving into June - possibly the next rate hike. The 2-year Treas.rate picked up again into the 1.30s % while the 10-year hit 2.4%. No sign of a flat Yield curve, necessary for a Recession to occur - maybe 4-5 more hikes on the short end. Every decade has an "R", usually @ the zero year - so watch out below !

Sentiment Indicators were mixed - the Adv/Dec difference was a mere 13!, causing the McClellan Oscillator to end at the zero line; New Highs were strong, however. Margin Interest remains HUGE, as does the U S Debt, both of which will squirm when rates rise. Finally, the dollar hit a recent low, per Trump's wishes, which should help Gold.
See below:

Date		5/5/2017	4/28/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21006	20940
	NAZ	6100	6047
	SPX	2399	2384
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.9/4.4	9.4/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.25	1.96
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.5	10.8
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60.3	59.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1548/1535	1901/1175
Weekly Net:		13	726
Cumulative:		176813	176800
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	427/137	544/71
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	429/196	561/138
McClellan	Oscillator	0	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	609	620
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.5	54.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.9	17.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	38.1	38.1
	Bear	29.9	31.7
US$-WSJ		98.6	99.0
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	6.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.6B	15.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	March	537B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.27
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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M'AIDEZ (MAYDAY)

GETTING HIGH AGAIN

After back to back 250 point up days on the DJIA, markets on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs last week. Technically, the Momentum studies bode well for more highs to follow near term - just about everyone agrees. Not saying a Correction is not possible.
Since WWII (or before) there has never been a decade without a Recession - and if we have one in the next four years (usually @ the Zero year of the Decile cycle) it should be a doozy, with the outstanding debt. Even Margin Debt rocketed to new highs at $537B due to low rates; when they go up ....
as the numbers below show, Breadth was positive last week - new highs, Advances over Declines, and MMF $ flows (money markets) reversed from Out to In bigtime - retail investors are IN.

Date		4/28/2017	4/21/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20940	20584
	NAZ	6047	5910
	SPX	2384	2352
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.4/4.8	8.1/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.96	1.98
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.8	14.6
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	59.9	50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1901/1175	2055/1009
Weekly Net:		726	1046
Cumulative:		176800	176074
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	544/71	295/61
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	561/138	239/144
McClellan	Oscillator	8	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	620	488
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	54.7	51.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.9	18.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	38.1	25.7
	Bear	31.7	37
US$-WSJ		99.0	99.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(2.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	15.4B	(16.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	537B	MARCH
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.27	1.17
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

GETTING HIGH AGAIN