SPRING IS HERE

And so is vacation, so here is this past week's data ahead of time, as I head for the Big Casinos in Reno.
Not much of note happened in the markets or the Indicators, some reversals. Breadth returned to Positive (A/D), as did the McClellan Osc.; and Summation rose.. I.I. show too many Bulls to Bears, and the $ is weakening.
Here are the ##s

Date		4/21/2017	4/14/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20584	20453
	NAZ	5910	5805
	SPX	2352	2329
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.1/4.1	6.6*/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.98	2.2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	77
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.6	15.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	50.4	52
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2055/1009	1300/1768
Weekly Net:		1046	-468
Cumulative:		176074	175028
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	295/61	211/47
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	239/144	156/119
McClellan	Oscillator	8	-16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	488	456
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	51.9	56.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	17.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	25.7	29
	Bear	37	37.4
US$-WSJ		99.8	100.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.7B)	WeekLate
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.9B)	(4.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		528B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.17	1.21
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.7	115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SPRING IS HERE

SNAP BACK

One day after Easter (and one day before the IRS comes calling for $$), stocks seem to have risen from the dead. After the S&P 500 hitting the 2400 mark on March 1, it fell gradually until today - hopefully the beginning of another cyclical rally.
Although the market is way overdue for a correction, a secular Bear doesn't seem to be in the offing. Since 1950, per Barron's item, no Recession has occurred without an Inverted Yield Curve in the Treasuries - 2-year yield ABOVE the 10-year. And Bear markets usually coincide with the R-word, which has occurred at least once in every decade for nearly a Century or more.
As for sentiment/breadth, notable exceptions include TIPs hitting the 115 mark; the VIX hitting almost 16 last week. The CBOE put/call ratio leapt to 77 from 64, a Bullish sign of fear.
See below:

Date		4/14/2017	4/7/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20453	20656
	NAZ	5805	5877
	SPX	2329	2355
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.6*/3.0	9.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.2	2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	77	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.9	12.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	52	52.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1300/1768	1608/1478
Weekly Net:		-468	130
Cumulative:		175028	175496
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	211/47	225/67
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	156/119	223/135
McClellan	Oscillator	-16	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	456	405
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.3	55.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	18.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29	28.3
	Bear	37.4	39.6
US$-WSJ		100.6	101.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(12.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(4.1B)	(6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	FEB.:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.21	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.6

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SNAP BACK

PREMATURE EVACUATION ??

Credit to Kopin Tan and Barron's for the phrase above and the chart showing corporate insiders selling HUGE numbers for the third time this year. However, just as with the low and steady VIX indicator, it does not necessary presage a market Crash, even though valuations are high.

In fact, as shown below, most Sentiment and Breadth Indicators are pretty much the same ol'.

Date		4/7/2017	3/31/17EOQ
Indices:	DJIA	20656	20663
	NAZ	5877	5911
	SPX	2355	2362
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.3/4.2	8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	52.2	50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1608/1478	2292/809
Weekly Net:		130	1483
Cumulative:		175496	175366
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	225/67	227/69
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	223/135	275/123
McClellan	Oscillator	14	36
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	405	325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	55.8	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.3	30.2
	Bear	39.6	37.4
US$-WSJ		101.1	100.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6B)	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.:	528B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.25
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.6	114.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

PREMATURE EVACUATION ??

ITEMS OF "INTEREST"

Conventional Wisdom would suggest that since the National Debt has doubled over the past decade, that Interest Rate Hikes to service that debt would be disastrous. Although somewhat true, Barron's' Gene Epstein reports that for the past 60 years the average rate has been ..5.8%; it is now only 2%, and the CBO sees in 30 years (?) it will still only be 4.4%.
Also of "Interest" - in this week's Sentiment numbers, Margin Interest has skyrocketed again to $528B, which will also rise to borrowers when rates do!
As the housewife once said: I can't be broke - I still have checks left!

Here are the numbers:

Date		3/31/17EOQ	3/24/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20663	20596
	NAZ	5911	5828
	SPX	2362	2343
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.8/4.1	9.2/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.15	2.14
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	13
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	50.4	53
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2292/809	1186/1923
Weekly Net:		1483	-737
Cumulative:		175366	173883
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	227/69	218/115
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	275/123	300/172
McClellan	Oscillator	36	-9
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	325	222
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	56.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	30.2	35.3
	Bear	37.4	30.5
US$-WSJ		100.6	99.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(6.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	0	(23.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.25	1.25
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.6	114.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

ITEMS OF "INTEREST"