20 K - SO WHAT

It took 50 years for the DJIA to grow from 1,000 (in 1966) to now, for an average annual gain of 2.5%; Before that it grew from 40 at its inception in 1896 (if memory serves) to 1,000 - 70 years, at a rate of 2.8%. Big Deal, especially considering the addition in 2004 of the FANG-type stocks and the Fed led rally from '09, which makes the chart look parabolically dangerous.
Also parabolic is the chart of Insider Selling in Barron's this week, although that correlation to market movement is not very tight (Insider Buying is better.
Also Fake News - if adjusted for Inflation, the Nasdaq should be around 7,000, not 5,600 if you use 40% compounded Infl. from the year 2000.

Outstanding numbers for last week's Sentiment columns below were still the margin debt (second highest since 1930); AAII Bears outnumbered the Bulls % for the first time in awhile, and the $$ flowed dramatically from equity funds back into MMFs week over week. Finally, NYSE new highs to lows broke the 10:1 ratio.

Date		1/27/2017	1/20/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20093	19827
	NAZ	5660	5555
	SPX	2294	2271
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.8/4.1	6.9/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.15	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.6	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	72.9	74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2115/994	1222/1869
Weekly Net:		1121	-647
Cumulative:		173082	171961
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	498/41	213/42
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	464/108	231/79
McClellan	Oscillator	3	-8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	682	627
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.2	60.6
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	31.6	37
	Bear	33.5	32.7
US$-WSJ		100.5	100.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(3.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	19.7B	(24.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	500B	NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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20 K - SO WHAT

SO FAR, ,,NOT FAR

Pretty boring market so far this year; mostly down last week: averages, breadth, new highs/lows. Even the $ dropped, with Trump's thoughts of weakening it for the country's benefit. This, of course, strengthens gold, which has dropped from a 19 handle to 11, now breeching 12.
Here are the numbers:

Date		1/20/2017	1/13/2017
Indices:	DJIA	19827	19885
	NAZ	5555	5574
	SPX	2271	2274
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.9/3.4*	8.9/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.03	2.12
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.5	11.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	74.2	74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1222/1869	1757/1339
Weekly Net:		-647	418
Cumulative:		171961	172608
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	213/42	295/39
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	231/79	308/79
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	17
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	627	644
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	60.6	58.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	18.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	37	43.6
	Bear	32.7	27
US$-WSJ		100.8	101.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	3.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(24.7B)	(22.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	500B	NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SO FAR, ,,NOT FAR

BULL, BEAR, OR CHICKEN

This week in Barron's weekly mag Ben Levisohn opened his column with how this year's market (so far) resembles putting your phone call on Hold. After a Huge rally ending 2016, stocks are pretty flat, but that may end this Friday with Trump's inauguration (hopefully peaceful).
Volume was back to normal, with an edge to speculative (Nasdaq over NYSE), MSI stocks on a Buy signal rose to a new recent high of 74 as did the Bullish Consensus, while VIX "slud" to 11.2.  The Inflation Indicator - TIP hit 114 for the first time in awhile, and Margin Interest hit $500B, near its $507B high - scary, when you think about having to cover that in a major slide -margin calls. MMF outflows doubled from the prior week Here are the numbers:

Date		1/13/17	1/6/2017
Indices:	DJIA	19885	19963
	NAZ	5574	5521
	SPX	2274	2277
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.9/4.2	7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.12	2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.2	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	74.2	69.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1757/1339	2369/724
Weekly Net:		418	1645
Cumulative:		172608	172190
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	295/39	360/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	308/79	362/67
McClellan	Oscillator	17	21.4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	644	577
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.4	60.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	43.6	46.2
	Bear	27	25.2
US$-WSJ		101.2	103
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(22.5B)	(11.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	NOV.	500B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.42
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.21
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	113.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BULL, BEAR, OR CHICKEN

"TRUMPETER'S" SERENADE

In the past Century Joseph Schumpeter advanced the theory of Creative Destruction, in which it takes breaking an egg to make an omelet. Present Donald Trump seeks to do the same, in many venues.
Over the year end break fund flows from MMFs reversed from  $16B Inflows to #11B Outflows in January's first week. Per Schwab's great Research team, last year saw the greatest exit from equity mutual funds in a decade, mostly into ETFs (probably Index).
Sentiment wise, the Bulls are running, for the I I and the AAII, with Investors' Intelligence just over 60. This overconfidence might not bode well for the immediate future. All else seems normal:

Date		1/6/2017	12/30/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19963	19762
	NAZ	5521	5383
	SPX	2277	2238
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.2/3.6	5.3/2.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2	2.12
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	14
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	69.8	68%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2369/724	1223/1868
Weekly Net:		1645	-645
Cumulative:		172190	170545
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	360/27	228/6
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	362/67	325/125
McClellan	Oscillator	21.4	-8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	577	462
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	60.2	60.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.4	18.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	46.2	45.6
	Bear	25.2	25.7
US$-WSJ		103	102.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	0.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(11.3B)	15.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	500B	November
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.42	2.46%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.21	1.22%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.5	113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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"TRUMPETER'S" SERENADE

SANTA CLAUS RALLY "SLAY RIDE"

Not a pretty week to end 2016, but it is in Xmas RED!!
With lower Holiday Volume, most Indicators showed the Old Ennui - UNCH. Exceptions were money flow reversal in MMFs (Money Markets), and margin debt - recorded monthly neared record highs. Could pressure any major decline with margin calls.

Date		12/30/2016	12/23/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19762	19933
	NAZ	5383	5462
	SPX	2238	2263
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	5.3/2.5	7.5/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.12	2.14
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14	11.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	68%	69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1223/1868	1815/1289
Weekly Net:		-645	526
Cumulative:		170545	171190
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	228/6	314/68
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	325/125	457/149
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	9
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	462	466
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	N/A	59.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	N/A	19.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	45.6	44.6
	Bear	25.7	29.2
US$-WSJ		102.4	102.9
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	15.9B	(20.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	500B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.46%	2.54%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.22%	1.20%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.1	112.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SANTA CLAUS RALLY "SLAY RIDE"