SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Odds are, despite Dark Pools making up half the stock market Volume these days, that the usual final week will pass us through the 20,000 mark on the DJIA, even with a four-day week. After that, I do not see much of a strong rally in 2017.
One reason is that so many $$ are going into Index ETFs, that it is lifting the bad/weak members of that Index along with the good, and could weaken the rally. Most Indicators below were Bullish, short term, except for the early week newsletter Bull/Bear ratios. Nasdaq Volume was strong, yet overall Volume down; stocks on BUY signals up; equity flows from MMFs good.

 Have a Great New Years!!

Date		12/23/2016	12/16/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19933	19843
	NAZ	5462	5437
	SPX	2263	2258
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.5/3.5	11.0/6.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.14	1.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.4	12.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	69%	70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1815/1289	1045/2063
Weekly Net:		526	-1018
Cumulative:		171190	170664
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	314/68	475/182
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	457/149	564/153
McClellan	Oscillator	9	4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	466	403
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	59.8	59.6
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	19.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	44.6	44.7
	Bear	29.2	32.3
US$-WSJ		102.9	102.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	19.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(20.8B)	(3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		484B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.54%	2.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.20%	1.26%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.5	111.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SANTA CLAUS RALLY

'TIS THE SEASON...

For ThanksTaking !! Am I the only one who noticed that it used to be crass to send an Xmas greeting and also ask for donations (charities, etc. - catching people a their most vulnerable moment). Kinda like the post-millenium change of corporate mandate from what is best of the company and product to what is best for the investor ( e.g. key employees who hold tons of vested shares)!!

That said, I wanted to wish readers of my sentiment blog: mktsentiment.blogspot.com. a happy year end season; also suggest a gift (commercial) Leland Faust's book A Capitalist's Lament. A former Barron's all star Advisor with mucho experience writes about the corruption on Wall St. and D.C., but loves the idea of Capitalism done right. Good Read. $25.  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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'TIS THE SEASON...

OPTIONS "EXASPERATION"

Friday was the last Option expiry and Triple Witching (futures,stocks) of 2016, and other things were happening to the market, including the upcoming Holidays. The week was basically a non-event as the DJIA moved up a tad, others down. Volume was a record high and the new Delta MSI indicator (Bullish when high) hit 70. The McClellan Oscillator was flat, as was the VIX and today's market. The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed above 3.0, which shows complacency.
Here are the numbers:

Date		12/16/2016	12/9/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19843	19786
	NAZ	5437	5444
	SPX	2258	2259
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	11.0/6.2	10.0/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.77	2.17
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.2	11.8
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	70%	64%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1045/2063	2451/666
Weekly Net:		-1018	1785
Cumulative:		170664	171682
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	475/182	676/94
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	564/153	788/120
McClellan	Oscillator	4	50
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	403	345
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	59.6	58.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.2	19.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	44.7	43.1
	Bear	32.3	26.5
US$-WSJ		102.8	101.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	3.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.9B)	16.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	484B	OCT.
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.59%	2.47%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.26%	1.14%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.2	112.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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OPTIONS "EXASPERATION"

EVERYTHING IS BEEEEAUTIFUL

So They (everyone) Say! The Trump Market will rise to at least 20,000 in the next 6 months! But not straight up. At a recent TSAA (technical analysts' society) annual luncheon, veteran analyst, teacher, and partner with Martin Pring -Bruce Fraser-, gave a talk on the markets. Although he did not say we were near a top, the charts he showed were convincing that a possible cessation might occur: a "Broadening top in the SPX looks to make a 5-wave triangle, and the Co-dependence of stocks to Bonds shows an offset top occurring.
The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear reached a 3 X Bull dominance (complacency) - a rarity! 59 to 19. Advance/Declines were 4 to 1 and New highs on the Nasdaq hit a record 700+ to 100. Also, the Volumes showed a large increase in NAS to NYSE (also speculative) The McClellan Oscillator hit +50 (my short term sell signal, which proved again today, at least for the NAS and SPX). We shall find out in the Fullness of Time.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date		12/9/2016	12/2/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19786	19170
	NAZ	5444	5255
	SPX	2259	2191
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/4.6	9.4/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.17	1.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.8	14.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	64%	66%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2451/666	1026/2098
Weekly Net:		1785	-1075
Cumulative:		171682	169897
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	676/94	462/178
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	788/120	536/144
McClellan	Oscillator	50	3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	345	110
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.8	56.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	22.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	43.1	43.8
	Bear	26.5	25.1
US$-WSJ		101.6	100.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	65
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	2.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	16.9B	13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	OCT.	n/a
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.47%	2.39%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.14%	1.10%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.8	113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EVERYTHING IS BEEEEAUTIFUL

TAKING A "BREADTHER"

Last week saw new His only in the DJIA as breadth took a breather; Advance/declines were 1 to 2, but Stocks on Buy signals were Bullish, as were New His. Bulls and Bears ratios were not good (complacent) but early in the week.
Volume back to normal after the ThanksTaking Holiday week, and NYSE to NASD was Bullish (less speculative).
Here are the ##s:

Date		12/2/2016	11/25/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19170	19152nh
	NAZ	5255	5398
	SPX	2191	2213
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.4/5.5	6.0/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.71	2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.1	12.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	66%	64%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1026/2098	2454/662
Weekly Net:		-1075	1792
Cumulative:		169897	170972
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	462/178	451/69
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	536/144	628/84
McClellan	Oscillator	3	59
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	110	34
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.3	55.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	22.3	21.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	43.8	49.9
	Bear	25.1	22.1
US$-WSJ		100.3	101.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	63
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	6.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	13.9B	18.8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	n/a	501B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.39%	2.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		10.00%	1.12%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.1	113.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

TAKING A "BREADTHER"