WHO IS THE MASTER DEBATER?

As tonight's debate competes with the NFL's Saints/Falcons game, record numbers will be watching the former - 100M estimated. Barron's opines that if Trump seems to win the show, the market will actually drop during October (as it does today).

Sentiment is mixed, with Breadth remaining strong - A/Ds 4 to 1, new highs 5 to 1 on the NYSE, Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high, Bears increasing (contrary), etc., BUT- MMF flows were $50B IN from the previous week, Volume was strong on down days, especially Inst. Investors'.

Flying to San Diego next week; here are last week's numbers:

Date>		9/23/2016	9/16/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18261	18123
	NAZ	5305	5244
	SPX	2164	2139
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.1/4.1	10.8/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.22	1.8
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.3	15.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	57%	62%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2500/635	1062/2048
Weekly Net:		1865	-986
Cumulative:		172379	170514
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	233/46	99/69
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	349/101	173/135
McClellan	Oscillator	14	*12
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	571	*517
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	44.6	49
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	24.3	22.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	24.8	27.9
	Bear	38.3	35.9
US$-WSJ		95.4	95
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.7B	(38.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.62%	1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.75%	0.77%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.2	115

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHO IS THE MASTER DEBATER?

EARLY EDITION II

As noted earlier, I shall be travelling the next two weeks - family bonding (and stocking). Monday should be quite exciting despite (hopefully) no 9/11 tragedies - after Friday's meltdown. Still, Sentiment Indicators, through bloody Friday, were mostly echoing Augusts ennui. A/D (advances/declines) were obviously ugly, but the new highs - NY and Nasd - still Yuge..

Volume about the same as previous, despite the Monday off. The Bullish % (stocks on a Buy signal) and its new cousin -  Delta SMI - remain high, but no weakness in either. And the McClellan Oscillator, near the minus 50 level (usually my buy signal for Monday) would indicate a reversal of Friday (thanks Fed); or maybe NOT. Fedmeet is the 20th on, and Fiscal year end a couple weeks later - budget????

Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/9/2016	9/2/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18085	18492
	NAZ	5125	5249
	SPX	2127	2179
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.6/3.6	7.7/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.11	1.88
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.5	12
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	70%	70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		631/2499	2086/1028
Weekly Net:		-1868	1058
Cumulative:		171500	173368
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	456/30	404/34
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	400/75	362/75
McClellan	Oscillator	-47	-1
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	758	788
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.5	55.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	22.8	20.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29.8	28.6
	Bear	28.5	31.5
US$-WSJ		95.3	95.9
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(.1B(
MMF flows	Change in $B	(29B)	(10.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		475B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.67%	1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.78%	0.79%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.1	115.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EARLY EDITION II

LABOR DAY

Labor Day - the day no one works ! As Art Hoppe  said in the S F Chronicle 50 years ago, a day invented by unions to make sure people work less, get paid more. It seems to be "working", as the number of people in the workforce is at a decades low, in spite of the gov't increasing at all levels - the S F gov't staff is 30,000, or 1 for every 300 residents.

Despite the many fears for the stock market success - Election, calendar weakness (Sept.& Oct.), Brexit, etc.- some things are positive. The Barron's Option column reports very low Volatility in options ( a sign of complacency); fund flows in Bear funds have sold, making for more cash available to buy, while Bull funds are flat. Wall of Worry: EVERYONE who is anyone is Bearish for at least a Correction: Jim Grant, Bill Gross, Icahn, Soros, Jim Rogers, S. Pomboy e.g.

Despite the second longest Flat market since '09, the fear of a rate hike has diminished short term. But this is the first Bull driven, not by earnings, but Fed easing, of the 5 in 40 years. NIRP ??

Breadth remains strong (New Highs), but Volume weak; bigtime $$ left MMFs to MUF (mutual);
 monthly Margin debt increased, almost to all time highs - from April '15.

I'll be vacationing (zigging while the masses have zagged already) for the next few weeks.

Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date>		9/2/2016	8/26/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18492	18395
	NAZ	5249	5218
	SPX	2179	2169
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.7/4.1	7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.88	2.14
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12	13.7
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	70%	73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2086/1028	1413/1707
Weekly Net:		1058	-294
Cumulative:		173368	172310
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	404/34	409/29
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	362/75	364/75
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	-35
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	788	878
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	55.9	56.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	20.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.6	29.4
	Bear	31.5	29.6
US$-WSJ		95.9	94.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10.5B)	24.6
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	475B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.60%	1.63%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.79%	0.85%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.5	116.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

LABOR DAY