BAD BREADTH

After a huge market runup for 5 weeks, stocks look a bit tired, breadth-wise (advances and declines). The McClellan Summation Index is dropping from its near-highs (@ 1000), and its Indicator has dropped from +60 to minus 5 in the past week; the NYA Index of New York stocks is making lower highs and lows after its all-time high last summer.

OTOH (on the other hand) my newly found Indicator, the Delta MSI is showing a high (69) Bullish number as is the Bullish % - stocks on a buy signal. So the picture, once again, is mixed.

Duke U. ( Ducks recent adversary in the NCAAs) Finance school - Fuqua - say that fast 3 times- reports that a poll of CFOs say the minimum wage hike will: cut hiring (75% polled), result in layoffs (75%), cut into employe benefits (66%) and hike prices (50%). 1/3 of these Finance Officers also see a Recession in 2016.

Here are last week's sentiment #s:

Date>	2016	3/24/16*	3/18/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17515	17602
	NAZ	4773	4795
	SPX	2035	2049
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.4/3.4*	9.6/6.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.88	1.52
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	82	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.7	14
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	69%	61%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1055/2113	2271/907
Weekly Net:		-1058	1364
Cumulative:		162566	163624
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	166/27	248/37
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	101/96	146/147
McClellan	Oscillator	-5	60
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	990	917
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.4	44.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27	30.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.8	30
	Bear	23.7	26.9
US$-WSJ		96.1	95.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(14.8B)	(40B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.89%	0.84%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.2	113.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BAD BREADTH

KA-SHING!!!

Is it only coincidence that the richest man in Asia is named Li Ka-shing (as in cash register? Talk about Income inequality. His empire is 15% of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. A regular Trump.

Normally I use this Facebook space for my Monday stock market Sentiment indicators, but from now on I'll just refer to the numbers at: www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com and save space in the ether.

That said, both breadth (advances/declines, etc.) and sentiment were Bullish last week, with my new Indicator - Delta MSI- hitting 61%. The VIX dropped to 14 ( I strongly recommend hedging one's portfolio with the TVIX, now at its baseline low @$5. It will come in handy if/when the market tanks again. TIPs hit 113 last week, a sigh of Inflation, but no worry at present. 123 was the 2012 high. A recent surge of $40B came out of MMFunds last week.

Coincidence #2: when I started my investment strategy of DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered calls in 2009 (wrote a book - Zero-Intolerance- in 2010) it was two months into a new Bull market in stocks - not the best environment for the plan. However, it has done well in this Zero.Negative Rate time, and is now poised to be the right plan for the coming months - high Volatility, lower stock prices, higher dividends, etc.

I just received an email from a colleague from the SF Options Group that he is giving a presentation on DITM at the Baraban Roundtable on the peninsula.

Date>	2016	3/18/2016	3/11/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17602	17213
	NAZ	4795	4748
	SPX	2049	2022
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.6/6.3	9.5/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.52	1.79
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14	16.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	61%	58%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2271/907	2087/1104
Weekly Net:		1364	983
Cumulative:		163624	162260
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	248/37	203/28
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	146/147	104/110
McClellan	Oscillator	60	73
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	917	682
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	44.4	39.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	30.3	35.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	30	37.4
	Bear	26.9	24.4
US$-WSJ		95.1	96.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.2B)	weekLate
MMF flows	Change in $B	(40B)	(1.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.84%	0.95%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.6	111.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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KA-SHING!!!

WHAT GOES UP

Must come down! Whether it be the stock market floating on overvaluation, or Gold and commodities rising on short covering, rather than increased demand, at some Resistance point markets will reverse.
The usually accurate McClellan Oscillator has been over bought for the second week; Bull/Bear newsletters are starting to get complacent (positive ratio). A new addition to the Indicators, from Barron's Market Lab: Delta MSI - 3600 stocks breaking up through their MAC (moving average crossover) .aka golden cross. Above 50% is Bullish. This week it is 58%.

Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	3/11/2016	3/4/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17213	17006
	NAZ	4748	4717
	SPX	2022	2000
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.5/5.3	10.0/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.79	1.66
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	70	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.5	16.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58%	N/A
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2087/1104	2723/481
Weekly Net:		983	2242
Cumulative:		162260	161277
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	203/28	186/57
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	104/110	108/128
McClellan	Oscillator	73	104
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	682	324
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	39.4	36.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	35.4	34.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	37.4	32
	Bear	24.4	29.3
US$-WSJ		96.2	97.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(2.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.2B)	26.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.95%	0.86%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.9	112.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHAT GOES UP

IT'S A BOY!!!

As of this morning I am again the proud Great Uncle Brent (aka GUB) as Hendrik arrived a bit ahead of schedule. Joy tops all Sentiment Indicators for now.

However, for the stock market, last week was unremarkable. Causing a bit of notice was a breath of Inflation, as measured by a slight nudge of the TIP, well below its Nov. 2012 high of 123. Barron's advises playing Vanguards ETF VTIP rather than the TIP one which has a CPI component as well as coupons. Still early for that, but the 2 year Treas. also jumped up a bit as well.
MMFs (money markets) inflows  have been doubling lately (for the fourth week); equity mutual funds also went positive for only the second time since Sept. 2015, although most went into ETFs from these open end funds.
Both stocks and commodities have been on a positive roll lately - stocks since the downswing in Jan; commodities since 2011. Neither seem to have grounds for a sustained move - more like short covering. Time will tell.  Gold seems more likely, in lieu of global events.

Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	3/4/2016	2/26/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17006	16639
	NAZ	4717	4590
	SPX	2000	1948
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/6.0	8.9/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.66	1.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.9	19.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2723/481	2358/833
Weekly Net:		2242	1525
Cumulative:		161277	159035
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	186/57	155/120
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	108/128	90/209
McClellan	Oscillator	104	76
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	324	-139
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	36.4	34.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	34.3	35.7
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32	31.2
	Bear	29.3	31.4
US$-WSJ		97.2	98.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	57
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	2.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	26.0B	15.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		445B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.86%	0.80%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.6	112.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

IT'S A BOY!!!