BUY BYE

Contrary (!) to Main Stream Media (MSM) reports about the market declining over 2% last week on news of Yemen, ISIS, etc., Barron's Streetwise clarifies things a bit with the fact that U.S. stock Buybacks were at record highs in 2014 and continue to do so - in fact, the $1/2T amount in 2014 was more than the mutual funds and ETFs combined! However, they reverse just weeks before each quarterly earnings reports (such as last week) and resume during. Also contributing is window dressing before each quarter ending.

Another interesting factoid in the contrary/sentiment realm is that the Long futures are nearly as high as before the last major decline - and Barron's opines that Oil could fall to the 20s before rallying again - observable, but not actionable, yet.

Last week Sentiment Indicators were again mixed - the CBOE put/call ratio said BUY at week's end (48 to 66); newsletter surveys, which come out early (Tues and Wed.) were complacent. Gold shorters continued to drop!! CEO Insider selling leapt from 24:1 up to 74 to 1. Typical during Income tax time. Finally, MMF (money markets) reversed on the decline from negative $19B to plus $17B.
Here are last week's numbers:

Date>		3/27/2015	3/20/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17712	18127
	NAZ	4891	5026
	SPX	2061	2108
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.8	9.7/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.37	1.83
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	48
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.1	13
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1212/2014	2515/745
Weekly Net:		-802	1770
Cumulative:		165707	166509
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	367/77	422/172
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	274/130	395/168
McClellan	Oscillator	-12	22
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	357	369
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.6	52
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	14.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	38.4	27.2
	Bear	24.4	31.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/3k	11k/(56k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(53k)	(57k)
CEOinsider	selling	74:1	.24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:40	.160:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	17B	(19B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	445B	Jan:
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1219/424/308	Jan:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.60%	0.59%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.42	113.76

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BUY BYE

HOPE AND FEAR

Any one who has traded options as well as entered March Madness Basketball pools knows the similarity of emotions with both: Hope and confidence at the start; day by day the hope turns to fear and disappointment; finally both end in loss, as expiry and the Finals occur. At least they both get your attention for awhile!The remedy for options is to SELL them, not BUY them; there is none for Basketball.

Being a "technical analyst" usually means being a Contrarian! This means going against the crowd. Last week was all about Chairwoman Yellen being "Patient" - I do not know if she meant wait awhile or visit the Doctor!

In Barron's this past week Scott Minerd writes the minority opinion (also mine) that interest rate hikes are actually GOOD for stocks, rising 6 months before as well as after the event.

Last week's Sentiment Indicators had these Contrarian gifts: The AAII (Individual Investor) Bears rose nearly 25% week over week; Insider Selling of CEOs has dropped recently (smart money); the Commitment of (futures) Traders also showed a big rise in S&P buying by large traders, with small traders  increased selling (see table below).

Most important was the backing off of smart selling by Gold Traders - finally- and the technical rise in gold recently (hoping it continues, as the $$ starts to weaken a bit after risin 25% the past year)

Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/20/2015	3/13/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18127	17749
	NAZ	5026	4871
	SPX	2108	2053
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.7/5.3	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.83	2.33
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	48	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	16.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2515/745	1411/1834
Weekly Net:		1770	-423
Cumulative:		166509	164739
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	422/172	180/222
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	395/168	236/166
McClellan	Oscillator	22	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	369	382
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52	53.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.2	31.6
	Bear	31.5	25.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11k/(56k)	1k/(42k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(57k)	(89k)
CEOinsider	selling	24:01:00	.20:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:30	.160:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	.3B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(19B)	18.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Jan:	445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	Jan:	1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.59%	0.66%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.76	111.51

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOPE AND FEAR

TAKE A HIKE

The number one topic of finance media these days is when will the Fed hike rates after 6 years of Zero. The vast majority of talking heads opine that it will be the death knell for stocks - although I disagree, according to previous hikes. In this week's Barron's Steve Sears, the Option Guy, points out that stocks consistently rise before and after the hikes, based on average going back to 1955.

Recently I have been advising family and friends to invest for the long haul using either Vanguard or Schwab INDEX funds, preferably dividend ones. Fees from managed funds can eat up your retirement $$ all the way up to 66% going to them - per a Frontline program recently aired. Compounding annual fees! In fact, last week a spokesperson for S&P IQ (Standard & Poors staff) stated in an interview that the average managed mutual fund underperformed the Index 77 to 81% of the time since 2000; even small cap funds were weaker; and even in high volatility times - such as 2000 and 2008 they gained less.

With stocks regressing back to zero for the year last week (not counting today) Sentiment extremes looked hopeful. Contrarians like small traders increasing shorts to 40k, up from 22k; Insider selling by CEOs fell sharply from 71:1 over buyers to 20:1, even during Income Tax time.

Finally, mutual fund assets swung from $18B outflows to $18B inflows.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date>		3/13/2015	3/6/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17749	17856
	NAZ	4871	4927
	SPX	2053	2071
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.9	9.3/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.33	2.45
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	6
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.0	15.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1411/1834	843/2411
Weekly Net:		-423	-1568
Cumulative:		164739	165162
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	180/222	362/98
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/166	308/125
McClellan	Oscillator	-38	-47
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	382	586
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.6	58.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	14.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	31.6	39.8
	Bear	25.4	23.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	1k/(42k)	2k/(22k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(89k)	(123k)
CEOinsider	selling	.20:1	.71:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:45	.160:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	18.2B	(18.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.66%	0.73%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.51	111.97

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TAKE A HIKE

Storm Clouds

Traders in the stock market may want to think about hedging or at least watching stocks closely - we've had a great runup for 6 years (first time in history?). Several smart people are echoing this - Bill Gross says we have plateau'd; Jim Bianco sees economy slowing short term - snowstorms, dock strikes, lower oil earnings. Earnings forecasts as as negative as 2008 !!; the PMI index (Purchasing managers ) as low as '09.

On the plus side - Steve Sears of Barron's echoes my thoughts of stocks rising as interest rates do - before, during and after; our friend from the north (Santa Rosa) Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs says a record stock buyback happened in Feb.

Sentiment-wise - Today's bounceback reaffirms my McClellan Oscillator oversold number at -47 (usually around minus fifty in this short term Advance/Decline chart calls for at least a bounce; Gold is still seeing huge short sellers, and the 2-year Treas. yield jumped to a near record of 0.73, but the TIPs dropped over two points.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/6/2015	2/27/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17856	18132
	NAZ	4927	4963
	SPX	2071	2104
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.3/3.8	9.2/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.45	2.49
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	6	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.2	13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		843/2411	1714/1541
Weekly Net:		-1568	173
Cumulative:		165162	166730
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	362/98	419/55
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	308/125	343/98
McClellan	Oscillator	-47	9
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	586	643
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	58.7	59.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	34.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.8	45.4
	Bear	23.4	20.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	2k/(22k)	2k/(16k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(123k)	(136k)
CEOinsider	selling	.71:1	.68:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:35	.150:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	(18.6B)	10.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.73%	0.63%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.97	114.06

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Storm Clouds

In Like A Lamb

March begins quietly, both in weather and in stocks. Last week saw Sentiment Indicators more in the neutral zone, but pointing in a positive direction. My cum Advance/Decline total reached another all time high on the NYSE, as its weekly A/D almost reached a 10:1 ratio - SOS.

VIX slid to a 13 handle, as Barron's reports the average at 19, but gold Commercials (read smart money) still remain at the high Selling level, but receding.. Still in the Commitment of Traders section, small SPX traders are shorting more each week, as large ones (smart??) are Buying.

Most significant, but not unusual this time of year (tax time): CEO Insider selling by Sector jumped to over  Million, with the ratio at 68:1, but Board members and 10% owners remained quiet.

Here are the #s:

Date>		2/27/2015	2/20/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18132	18140
	NAZ	4963	4955
	SPX	2104	2110
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.2/3.7	6.7/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.49	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	14.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1714/1541	1679/1543
Weekly Net:		173	136
Cumulative:		166730	166557
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	419/55	332/37
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	343/98	263/84
McClellan	Oscillator	9	24
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	643	556
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	59.5	56.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	34.1	34.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.4	47
	Bear	20.3	17.9
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	2k/(16k)	4k/(9k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(136k)	(144k)
CEOinsider	selling	.68:1	.42:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.150:30	.160:15
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.3B	(9.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	445B	na
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.63%	0.64%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.06	112.48

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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In Like A Lamb