Running Out Of Steam?

Both Breadth and Sentiment are catching the apathy of summertime, as indices fail to pierce the 000s ahead - the DJIA and the SPX. Advance/declines waver from week to week, positive to negative; the McClellan Oscillator is negative for the third week in a row, as the Summation recedes into a 5 handle. Dumb money is exceeding smart money - see more about this at:

  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Commitment of Traders show higher buying by small traders, except in Gold, where the commercials are huge sellers!

Here are the numbers :

Date>		7/26/2014	7/18/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16960	17100
	NAZ	4449	4432
	SPX	1978	1978
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.7/2.9	9.8/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3	2.8
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1503/1720	1679/1538
Weekly Net:		-217	141
Cumulative:		163758	163975
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	435/91	386/62
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	201/145	150/154
McClellan	Oscillator	-31	-25
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	599	711
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.5	56.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.2	15.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29.6	32.4
	Bear	29.9	28.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	.2/6	.1.11
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(160k)	(157k)
CEOinsider	selling	44:1	49:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:20	225:5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2.2B)	(10.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAY	438B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	MAY	1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.49%	0.48%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Running Out Of Steam?

ZERO TOLERANCE

The DJIA (30) so far has held above the triple zero breakthrough, although the broader market - SPX (500) has not yet pierced the zero mark of 2000. Various indicators - seasonal, cyclical, technical, and even fundamental- are suggesting a breather after 5 1/2 years of Bull. Although the Investors Intelligence Bulls have dropped below the 60% mark (to 56%), the Bears are now at 15.1%. For more reasons, please go to:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Wild rides in the markets, even gold - with 30 and 20 point swings; commercial insider sellers are still huge despite the global turbulence.  

Here are last week's numbers:

Date>		7/18/2014	7/11/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17100	16943
	NAZ	4432	4415
	SPX	1978	1967
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.8/3.5	8.7/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.8	2.9
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1679/1538	1173/2070
Weekly Net:		141	-897
Cumulative:		163975	163834
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	386/62	309/60
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	150/154	137/103
McClellan	Oscillator	-25	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	711	894
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.6	60.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.1	15.2
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	32.4	37.6
	Bear	28.5	28.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	.1.11	.6/1
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(157k)	(166k)nh
CEOinsider	selling	49:1	104:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	225:5	220:20
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10.2B)	5.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.48%	0.45%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ZERO TOLERANCE

A Day Late...

and $1,000.00 short. Due to my desktop computer blowing up on me ( my first traumatic time) and buying a new one with countless hours of mental anguish, this comes on Tuesday this week.

Post-holiday ennui set in with sellers taking profits from the record highs, yet sentiment grew more complacent. Put/calls went from 52 to 60, although the VIX did rise. Declines vastly outnumbered the advances, with New Highs still positive.Inv. Intell Bears dropped to the 15 handle, not seen in awhile. Commercial gold traders foresaw something last week with record selling - 166K, a new high, and gold dropped $30 on Monday, 10 more today. Must have been the Barron's bullish interview!

Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/11/2014	7/3/14*hol
Indices:	DJIA	16943	17068
	NAZ	4415	4485
	SPX	1967	1985
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.7/3.0	6.3/2.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.9	2.42
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	52
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	10.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1173/2070	1944/1276
Weekly Net:		-897	668
Cumulative:		163834	164731
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	309/60	599/30
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	137/103	307/51
McClellan	Oscillator	-38	5
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	894	1053
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	60.6	57.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.2	16.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	37.6	38.5
	Bear	28.7	22.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	.6/1	n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(166k)nh	n/a
CEOinsider	selling	104:1	20:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	220:20	175:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.4B	13.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.45%	0.51%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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A Day Late...

HOLDING YOUR BREADTH

Market breadth is usually measured by Advancing stocks versus Declining ones, or New Highs versus New Lows. In this incessant Bull market rally, higher advances have been the norm, as have the New Highs, especially in the NYSE. Such an upward right  translation is thought of as a strong market, with the majority of investors on the Buy side. At some  point that will change - suddenly and drastically. As Harry Domash cited at one Money Show talk I attended: The Trend is your Friend, until it Bends at the End!

Usually a 10 to 1 ratio of the above indicators is something to be monitored, being a bit unusual; last week, however, the NYSE New Hi/Lo total reached a 20:1 ratio - something I've never seen before. Thanks greatly to the Fed's zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), this market keeps getting stronger. Barron's columnist Randall Forsyth opines that many corporations, such as Monsanto, are using low cost debt to buyback their own stock which could perpetuate the move.

How long this will last is unpredictable, but the last 3 Augusts have seen declines of at least 3%, also reports Barron's. Last week, all three major indices set new highs - the DJIA, SPX, and Nasdaq. Market action around holidays is usually positive, especially if around the first of the month. The VIX - volatility indicator- also hit a recent low, signifying complacency.

Finally, as seen below, for what it's worth in indicating Inflation, the 2-year Treasury yield it a recent high of .51%; the 10-year yield in France, however, is at a 300- year low, with Germany and Japan close behind.

Here are the numbers from the holiday-shortened week: 

Date>		7/3/14*hol	6/27/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17068	16851
	NAZ	4485	4397
	SPX	1985	1960
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	6.3/2.6	9.5/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.42	2.44
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.3	11.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1944/1276	1817/1414
Weekly Net:		668	403
Cumulative:		164731	164063
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	599/30	556/66
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	307/51	224/98
McClellan	Oscillator	5	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1053	1000
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.6	60.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.1	16.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.5	37.2
	Bear	22.4	21.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	n/a	.6/6
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	n/a	(131k)
CEOinsider	selling	20:1	52:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:25	175:20
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	13.1B	5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.51%	0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOLDING YOUR BREADTH