INCORRECT IN JUNE

According to Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, since 1962 there has been a CORRECTION of at least 9% in every mid-term election year, such as the present one. So far into 2014, now half way through, the largest was the immediate 5.7% in early February, and ending the semi-annual period up 6.3% YTD.
June was to be the worst month based on years going back to 1945, with May, August and September close behind.

So far this year the Sentiment numbers. like the VIX, tend to make one's eyes glass over- last week was no exception. May's totals for ETFs continue to grow to record highs (see below), and the monthly margin debt drop again, although still high, with zero interest rates. Both sets of Insider trading (legal) remain high, but differed when looked at by Sectors (52 to 1 sellers), or individuals ( officers and 10% stakeholders).   Also high once more - Commercial sellers of Gold, perhaps quarter-ending action.

Breadth (advance/decline and new highs/lows) remain strong - the latter 10 to 1- Wire House Bulls stay above 60% and Bears in the low 20s. Here are the numbers:

Date>		6/27/2014	6/20/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16851	16947
	NAZ	4397	4368
	SPX	1960	1962
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.5/3.9	9.6/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.44	2.29
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	47
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	10.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1817/1414	2243/973
Weekly Net:		403	1270
Cumulative:		164063	163660
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	556/66	574/51
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	224/98	278/90
McClellan	Oscillator	13	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1000	983
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	60.2	61.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.3	16.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	37.2	35.2
	Bear	21.1	24.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	.6/6	12/(11)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(131k)	(75k)
CEOinsider	selling	52:1	17:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:20	175:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	5B	(31B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.46%	0.46%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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INCORRECT IN JUNE

More POOR Than STANDARD

The S&P 500 took a slight hiccup last week (25 points), a little over 1% - hardly the June correction we've been expecting - we still have option expiry, summer solstice, and quarterly rebalancing to go yet.

Standout Sentiment numbers last week included the Inv. Intell. Bulls near a record of 62%, the same number as the ratio of Insider Sellers to Buyers, as stated by Sectors. Individual tallies, officers/board members as well as 10% stockholders showed a fairly high number again, but not climactic.

Funnily enough, the record since I've been keeping these (around a decade), the highest number of Sector Selling was in May of 2009 - just when this huge Bull market was getting started - Go Figure.
Also at a recent record, for whatever it is worth, is the 2-year Treas. interest rate, at 0.45%

Here are the numbers:

Date>		6/13/2014	6/6/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16775	16924
	NAZ	4310	4321
	SPX	1936	1949
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.9/2.9	8.4/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.07	2.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	51	51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.2	10.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1302/1910	2093/1135
Weekly Net:		-608	958
Cumulative:		162390	162998
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	492/41	574/66
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	288/68	237/137
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	35
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	950	915
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.6	62.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.2	17.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	44.7	39.5
	Bear	21.3	22.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11/(9)	4k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(85k)	(64K)
CEOinsider	selling	62:1	26:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	180:40	170:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.45%nh	0.41%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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More POOR Than STANDARD

DEJA VIEW

Under glassy eyes, the markets keep inching forward to new highs - strong breadth, but continued weak Volume. Even the complacent CBOE put/call ratio is at mid-range -50-, while the VIX slips into the 10 handle. Not since 2007 has it held at that range, just before the SPX got cut in half.

The I.I. (Investors Intelligence) Bulls are at 62.2% - the second highest EVER. NY new highs are almost ten to one.
Here are the numbers- for more commentary, click on:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

(You can get the FREE Examiner.com column weekly by clicking on SUBSCRIBE)

Date>		6/6/2014	5/30/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16924	16717
	NAZ	4321	4242
	SPX	1949	1923
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.4/3.1	7.0/2.7*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.71	2.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	51	54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.7	11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2093/1135	2118/1091
Weekly Net:		958	1027
Cumulative:		162998	162040
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	574/66	425/62
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	237/137	182/83
McClellan	Oscillator	35	24
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	915	855
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.2	58.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.4	17.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.5	36.5
	Bear	22.2	23.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4k/3k	10k/2k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(64K)	(79k)
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	170:50	175:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	APR.	437B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	APR.	1056/412/263
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.41%	0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DEJA VIEW

Will June Swoon Soon?

The stock market is like Lance Armstrong - hopefully it ends better! With the Fed as EPO it just keeps moving higher by bits, wiping out most downturns intraday. Even most Sentiment Indicators are glassy-eyed, with the exception of the VIX - it has closed below 12 about the same number of days (5) as the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above the double-zero 1900; this aborted my filter of 3 days closing above Resistance, and bodes well for higher prices.

Still, we have to get through June, the mid-term election jinx month; notable extremes to Sentiment include the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear ratio still above 3:1 Bulls, at 58 to 17. Commercial gold sellers have finally backed off, as have insider sellers and even margin debt, despite low interest rates.

Here are the numbers (with the latest monthly ETF amounts for April:

Date>		5/30/2014	5/23/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16717	16606
	NAZ	4242	4185
	SPX	1923	1900
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	7.0/2.7*	8.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.59	2.8
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.4	11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2118/1091	2107/1115
Weekly Net:		1027	992
Cumulative:		162040	161013
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	425/62	290/78
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	182/83	111/156
McClellan	Oscillator	24	15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	855	747
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	58.3	57.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	18.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	36.5	30.3
	Bear	23.2	26.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/2k	8k/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(79k)	(106K)
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	17::1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:35	160:20
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.3B	(3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	437B	APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1056/412/263	APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Will June Swoon Soon?