The Jury Is Out

In these lazy, crazy days of August, where most of the heavy traders are MIA, and the second string cannot get access to Nasdaq stocks, Sentiment Indicators are at best, mixed. Maybe the new SEC head - Mary Jo White - can help the exchanges. As Barron's Randall Forsyth says -  who better than the gov't to monitor private information! Someone told me that if I forget my Password I should just call the NSA for it !!

My newly favored indicator, Larry McMillan's CBOE put/call ratio chart is calling for a downturn with its inverse pattern - meanwhile, the AAII Bears jumped from 28% to 43 w/w - a Bullish signal. CEO Insider Selling dropped bigtime, while MMFunds jumped up $15B, mostly from outflows of Bond funds.

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		8/23/2013	8/16/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15010	15081
	NAZ	3657	3602
	SPX	1663	1655
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		6.5/.3.1	7.8/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.10	2.29
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.0	14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1922/1272	633/2582
Weekly Net:		650	-1949
Cumulative:		149949	149299
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	122/647	232/544
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	208/98	277/86
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-80
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-219	41
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.3	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29	34.5
	Bear	42.9	28.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	7/-1	9/7
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-68	-61
CEOinsider	selling	17:1	25:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.8B)	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	15.4B	2.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JUNE	377B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	JUNE	851/321/244
(Monthly	B$$ .)
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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The Jury Is Out

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND..

TILL IT BENDS AT THE END!
To borrow from Harry Domash's comments at the Money Show this past weekend - more on that later in my Examiner.com column:

 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 The cautionary signals recently have finally born fruit of at least a correction, with Technical (seasonal) and Fundamental (economic, political) headwinds in view. Insider selling has backed off this past week, but has been extremely high for weeks; money flows have seen huge outflows from bonds (funds, etfs, CEFs, etc.), but still not greatly into stocks.

New lows beat new highs - the Hindenburg Syndrome- as breadth weakens: the McClellan Oscillator was minus 80, a BUY signal short term. And survey Bears are increasing a bit.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		8/16/2013	8/9/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15081	15425
	NAZ	3602	3660
	SPX	1655	1691
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.8/3.4	7.9/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.29	2.55
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.4	13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		633/2582	1074/2109
Weekly Net:		-1949	-1035
Cumulative:		149299	151248
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	232/544	383/327
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	277/86	452/70
McClellan	Oscillator	-80	-32
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	41	301
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47.4	51.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	18.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34.5	39.5
	Bear	28.2	26.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	9/7	10/15
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-61	-54
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	84:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.3B	7.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	377B	JUNE
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	851/321/244	JUNE
(Monthly	B$$ .)
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND..

Bad Breadth

With stock trading Volume down last week, as expected this vacation time of year, mostly absent were the Buyers, as seen in last week's steady but managed decline. With the starters off this month, the bench players are minding the stores, mostly defensively.

One recent chart I've been watching is the McMillan put/call ratio in Barron's which hit a 12-month (at least) low - a contrary signal, when it turns UP the market should decline in earnest. Sy Harding reports a large number of stocks above the 200 MA (moving average), a Sell signal.

For more commentary, please see my Examiner.com wrapup at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are last week's Sentiment numbers:

Date>		8/9/2013	8/2/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15425	15658
	NAZ	3660	3689
	SPX	1691	1709
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.9/3.1	8.6/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.55	2.39
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.4	12.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1074/2109	1603/1587
Weekly Net:		-1035	16
Cumulative:		151248	152283
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	383/327	563/194
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	452/70	535/62
McClellan	Oscillator	-32	-4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	301	480
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.6	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.5	19.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.5	35.6
	Bear	26.6	25
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	10/15	10/13
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-54	-26
CEOinsider	selling	84:1	72:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.6B	(9.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JUNE	377B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	JUNE	851/321/244
(Monthly	B$$ .)
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.30%

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Bad Breadth

What Can Possibly Go #$%^&

With the Dog Days of Summer coming up, Volume in the markets have not changed much. But the prior week's level of speculation (NASD : NYSE ratio) was quite high, although backing off a bit last week. Other Indicators have also backed off, but a few remain to warn of caution:

Although A/D (advances over declines) remain strong on the NYSE, the McClellan Oscillator, which is based on that, has been dropping steadily since mid-July, even going negative last week. Other notable highs are margin interest, Bullish %, (legal) Insider Selling, and Bulls vs. Bears - at least in the Investors' Intelligence survey.

More commentary is at my Examiner.com column:   

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

as well as some notices of upcoming investment meetings.

 

Date>		8/2/2013	7/26/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15658	15558
	NAZ	3689	3613
	SPX	1709	1691
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.6/3.6	8.6/3.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.39	2.69
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.0	12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1603/1587	1424/1757
Weekly Net:		16	-333
Cumulative:		152283	152267
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	563/194	552/170
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	535/62	608/49
McClellan	Oscillator	-4	4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	480	540
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	51.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	19.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.6	45.1
	Bear	25	22.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	10/13	12/9
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-26	-25
CEOinsider	selling	72:1	31:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	2.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(9.6B)	(9.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	377B	JUNE
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	851/321/244	JUNE
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.32%

********************************************************************

I thought now would be  a good time to also list the multi-year highs/lows for the Indicators below:

 

Date> DECADE HI LOW Indices: DJIA  15658 6626   NAZ  3689 1114 SPX  1709 683 WklyVolume (Bshs).   NASD/NYSE       Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59 nasd/nyse     Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42 VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8 Advance/Dec-NYSE..     Weekly Net:          Cumulative: 154252 71464 Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18 New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l     McClellan  Oscillator Jan.09:108 May.'12:(110) McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 (1514). Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08 Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6 AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3   Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4 COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k     CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1 3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2 US equity -ICI Fund Flows   MMF flows Change in $B MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  384B-May'13 ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 873/349/257  Billion$$ . 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.40%
235:1	.2.1
89	2
384B-May'13	J
873/349/257
0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

What Can Possibly Go #$%^&