Clouds On The Horizon

The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

Date>		7/26/2013	7/19/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15558	15543
	NAZ	3613	3587
	SPX	1691	1692
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.6/3.2	8.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.69	2.35
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	12.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1424/1757	2029/1141
Weekly Net:		-333	888
Cumulative:		152267	152600
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	552/170	586/61
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	608/49	688/47
McClellan	Oscillator	4	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	540	429
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.5	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	19.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.1	47.7
	Bear	22.6	21.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/9	12/4
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-25
CEOinsider	selling	31:1	76:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	2.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(9.8B)	8.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JUNE	377B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	JUNE	851/321/244
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Clouds On The Horizon

BLACK SWAN ON THE HORIZON?

One of the great Contrarian signals is that when everyone is looking one way, the other way happens. So many analysts and strategists are so Bullish, due to the Fed's manipulation and the U.S. being the best house in a bad neighborhood.To balance this out, here are a couple of Bearish views:

Garrett Jones, who studied technicals under Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch, gave a talk recently at San Francisco's Bloomberg office,  predicting a Black Swan event. Based on his circa 40-year cycle work ( charts show selloffs from 1811, 1851, 1891 1930, and 1974 ). Garrett expects a large decline sometime in July - with today being the 22nd.

Since 1900, there have been no less than one and no more than two Bear markets per decade, including the last decade (2001, 2008). Four years into the current one, we have barely had more than a 15% correction - 2010 and 2011 - in the SPX. Raymond James' Jeff Saut states that although the recent breadth ( Advances vs. Declines) showed a 17% decline, the market only just corrected 7% - meaning we have more to go. Europeans Marc Faber and Felix Zulauf see 20-30% declines in U.S markets.

Most Sentiment Indicators are coming of extremes: MMF Inflows increased almost $13B last week; while Equity flows finally gained slightly, as did ETF Inflows. Bullish %, a toppy indicator, hit 81 and the Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio ran to 52%, with Bears under 20%.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/19/2013	7/12/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15543	15464
	NAZ	3587	3600
	SPX	1692	1680
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.0/3.4	7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.35	2.14
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.5	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2029/1141	2523/645
Weekly Net:		888	1878
Cumulative:		152600	151712
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	586/61	551/119
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	688/47	728/42
McClellan	Oscillator	46	59
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	429	182
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	46.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.8	22.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47.7	48.9
	Bear	21.3	18.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/4	13/3
CEOinsider	selling	76:1	106:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	4.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	8.5B	12.8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.34%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BLACK SWAN ON THE HORIZON?

"WHAT CAN GO WRONG"? MARKET

As the U.S. markets continue to make new highs, $$s drift out of mutual funds and into MMFunds - $13B last week for the latter - 10 times the amount from the week before. The Bullish percent was quite high at 79 on the Pt. & Fig. chart (80% of stocks on a Buy signal).

Yet the AAII Bulls are near 50%, while the Bears only 18%. Breadth was strong, with the McClellan Oscillator at a dangerous 59. The NAZ new highs were 728 for the week, with new lows only 42.

For more commentary and investment meetups this week, please see:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

Meanwhile, here are the numbers:

 

Date>		7/12/2013	7/5/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15464	15135
	NAZ	3600	3479
	SPX	1680	1631
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.9/3.7	5.4/2.5*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.14	2.16
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.8	14.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2523/645	1657/1513
Weekly Net:		1878	144
Cumulative:		151712	149834
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	551/119	295/111
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	728/42	440/65
McClellan	Oscillator	59	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	182	-48
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	46.9	43.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.9	20.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	48.9	42
	Bear	18.3	23.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	13/3	12/7??
CEOinsider	selling	106:1	32:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.8B	1.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

"WHAT CAN GO WRONG"? MARKET

HOLIDAY NUMBERS

In a holiday-shortened week Volume was down, but became more speculative with the NASDAQ/NYSE ratio rising above 2.0.

The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

If you have received this email by mistake or wish to be removed, please notify

brentleonard59@gmail.com

Date>		7/5/2013	6/28/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15135	14909
	NAZ	3479	3403
	SPX	1631	1606
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		5.4/2.5*	9.4/5.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.16	1.88
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.9	16.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1657/1513	2308/875
Weekly Net:		144	1433
Cumulative:		149834	149690
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	295/111	168/681
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	440/65	271/175
McClellan	Oscillator	14	19
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-48	-133
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.8	41.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.8	25
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42	30.3
	Bear	23.8	35.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/7??	12/7
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	7:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.7B	7.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		377B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		873/349/257
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

HOLIDAY NUMBERS

BULL OR BEAR?

Markets finally ended the week on a positive note - Sentiment extremes included an Insider Selling drop; reversal of the advance/declines week over week, a reversal to the Bullish side from the AAII Bull/Bear survey.

The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

 

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates and click on BLUE title

Date>		6/28/2013	6/21/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14909	14659
	NAZ	3403	3320
	SPX	1606	1573
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.4/5.0	9.6/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.88	1.84
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.9	18.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2308/875	567/2624
Weekly Net:		1433	-2057
Cumulative:		149690	148257
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	168/681	280/465
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	271/175	310/133
McClellan	Oscillator	19	-94
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-133	-107
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.7	46.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25	21.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	30.3	37.5
	Bear	35.2	30
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/7
CEOinsider	selling	7:1	24:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.5B)	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.6B	(25B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	377B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	873/349/257
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BULL OR BEAR?