ROSE E. SCENARIO

Many of the Sentiment Indicators have again regressed to the mean from extremes, due to the recent selloff, creating much needed doubt in investors' minds.

 Speculative NASD Volume versus NYSE is down, the VIX rose up 20 last week and the CBOE put/call ratio rose again to 71 - all ending complacency. The McClellan Summation Index ( cumulative from the Oscillator) went negative for the first time in many months. The Oscillator itself gave a BUY signal at minus 94!

  The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.

 For commentary on these, please go to:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

If you have received this email by mistake or wish to be removed, please notify

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Here are the numbers:

Date>		6/21/2013	6/14/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14659	15070
	NAZ	3320	3423
	SPX	1573	1626
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.6/5.2	7.7/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.84	2.26
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		18.9	17.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		567/2624	944/2243
Weekly Net:		-2057	-1299
Cumulative:		148257	150314
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	280/465	221/549
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	310/133	302/94
McClellan	Oscillator	-94	-47
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-107	202
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	46.8	43.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.9	22.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	37.5	33
	Bear	30	34.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k		3/8
CEOinsider	selling	24:1	n/a
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(2.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(25B)	1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ROSE E. SCENARIO

DOW(N) JONES AVERAGES

After a spectacular  Bull Run, the stock market has declined 3 of the past 4 weeks, thanks largely to the Fed - which will be generally reporting its intent again this week. Below are the Sentiment Indicators for the week (with the exception of CEO Insider Selling, not available so far).

For commentary, and some investment meetups in the future, please click on the following link:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

and click on BLUE title-

 

Date>		6/14/2013	6/7/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15070	15248
	NAZ	3423	3469
	SPX	1626	1643
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.7/3.4	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.31
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	70	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.2	15.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		944/2243	1447/1717
Weekly Net:		-1299	-270
Cumulative:		150314	151613
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	221/549	203/343
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	302/94	334/74
McClellan	Oscillator	-47	-40
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	202	515
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.8	45.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.9	20.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	33	29.5
	Bear	34.6	38.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/8	(5)/21
CEOinsider	selling	n/a	35:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.5B)	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	1B	(2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		APR.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		APR.
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.31%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DOW(N) JONES AVERAGES

BEWARE OF J.A.S.O.N.

J.A.S.O.N - , abbreviations for the months June until November, represent the worst semi-annual cycle for investors. In this month's Examiner.com column:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard,

I discuss the recent TSAA/MTA joint Technical meeting at Bloomberg, featuring Garrett Jones.

 Although he is calling for an imminent huge crash in the near future, there are many mixed signals from the Sentiment Indicators:

 The McClellan oscillator is still at minus levels, despite the runup on Friday - since the overall week's Advance/Declines were again negative, for the 3rd week in a row. Also on the McClellan chart is a longer term signal of the 5% - 10% line bottoming out and turning upward, just as it did in December. The CBOE put/call ratio at 66 is also high (but CEO Insider Selling remains high as well - as in Armageddon outta here!)

 

 Another rarity last week was the NYSE new highs being outnumbered by new lows. Both domestic and global money flows are enigmatic, some setting records (global), and a 7 month high withdrawal of funds from U S equity funds. Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		6/7/2013	5/31/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15248	15115
	NAZ	3469	3455
	SPX	1643	1630
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.0/3.9	7.1/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2.15
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.1	16.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1447/1717	896/2277
Weekly Net:		-270	-1381
Cumulative:		151613	151883
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	203/343	408/224
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	334/74	398/58
McClellan	Oscillator	-40	-81
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	515	893
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	45.8	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.8	19.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29.5	36
	Bear	38.9	29.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(5)/21	1/24
CEOinsider	selling	35:1	34:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	88
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2.5B)	12.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	APR.	384nh
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	APR.	854/355/258
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BEWARE OF J.A.S.O.N.

JUNE SWOON

Reporting extreme Sentiment Indicators is getting to seem like a fool's errand, when "fighting the Fed" - which has moved from a referee to a player on the field- causing 6 straight monthly gains in the stock market sans corrections. In fact, per my favorite mag- Barron's- 17 of the past 20 months have been up, despite economic and political conditions. Possibly now the market may get some selling, although according to the model for strong UP January years, it shouldn't occur before August - then the Terrible Twos of Sept.Oct. kick in.

The McClellan Oscillator ended the week at a minus 81 - a huge BUY signal in my work. For more on the table below, please see:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 

Each week this column serves to announce local Bay Area investment meetings, mostly Technical and Options-related for the weeks ahead; it also attempts to highlight Contrary Behavior Indicators (as opposed to making market predictions) by concentrating various comments and data in one place. 

 The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates and click on BLUE title. 

 

Date>		5/31/2013	5/24/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15115	15303
	NAZ	3455	3459
	SPX	1630	1649
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.1/3.3	8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.15	2.47
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.3	14.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		896/2277	1089/2077
Weekly Net:		-1381	-988
Cumulative:		151883	153264
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	408/224	851/81
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	398/58	519/59
McClellan	Oscillator	-81	-41
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	893	1117
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	55.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.8	18.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	36	49
	Bear	29.6	21.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/24	3/20
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	50:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	89
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.2B	19.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		384nh
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		854/355/258
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.25%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

JUNE SWOON