YEAR END SALE

In nearly 20 years of tracking stock market sentiment data since receiving my CMT (technican) designation on Sentiment, I have never seen so many extremes as last week, partly due to the end of the year reckoning - to see more comments, please click on my Examiner.com column describing these numbers below:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

The most glaring, was in my new-found area of Insider Trading (legal), separating the Officers and Board members from the less informed holders of 10% of the stock, often bundled together.

 

Date>		12/27/2013	12/20/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16478	16221
	NAZ	4156	4104
	SPX	1841	1818
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	5.0/1.7	10.7/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.94	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2164/1028	2361/851
Weekly Net:		1136	1510
Cumulative:		154081	152945
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	533/121	398/255
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	556/44	396/109
McClellan	Oscillator	43	28
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	233	40
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	59.6	57.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	55.1	47.5
	Bear	18.5	25.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	n/a	17/16
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000		(27K)
CEOinsider	selling	224:1hug-est	106:1hug-er
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	22.1B	(34.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	1 month
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	pending
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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YEAR END SALE

Year End Sales

Year end fund flows are in, per Barron's this week:

Stock funds, despite rumors that the public is not in the markets yet, took in a ten-year record $1/4T; Bonds took in $100B at the first of the year, then took it back out, for dead even.
MMFs (money markets) had out flows for the fifth straight year, and commodities had negative flows for the first time on record.

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week:

Date>		12/20/2013	12/13/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16221	15755
	NAZ	4104	4000
	SPX	1818	1775
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.7/4.8	8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.62
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.8	15.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2361/851	875/2324
Weekly Net:		1510	-1449
Cumulative:		152945	151435
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	398/255	269/401
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	396/109	281/125
McClellan	Oscillator	28	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	40	29
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.1	58.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47.5	41.3
	Bear	25.1	25
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	17/16	13/22
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(27K)	(29k)
CEOinsider	selling	106:1huger	75:1huge
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows		WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B		7.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.39%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Year End Sales

Beware The Bear

For the second week in a row, the Advance/Decline was negative - much more than the prior week. Most extreme was the Insider Selling Volume - HUGE- and the ratio was 75 to 1 over Buyers. This is not as great an indicator, since it comingles 10% stock holders along with the Board members and Officers-  the latter being the most informed. Still...

The McClellan oscillator, near the minus 50 level, at -38, could have foretold the nice Monday rally, but no more than that.

Date>		12/13/2013	12/6/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15755	16020
	NAZ	4000	4062
	SPX	1775	1805
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.9/3.4	8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.62	2.47
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.8	13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		875/2324	1059/2133
Weekly Net:		-1449	-1074
Cumulative:		151435	152884
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	269/401	323/259
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	281/125	386/83
McClellan	Oscillator	-38	-18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	29	213
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	58.2	57.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	41.3	42.6
	Bear	25	27.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	13/22	6/25
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(29k)	(22k)
CEOinsider	selling	75:1huge	29:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.5B	24.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Beware The Bear

FESTIVUS WEEK

Holiday parties are starting this week, with the TSAA annual Alfred's meetup, with Garrett Jones et.al., holding forth. Also South Bay traders can party at the TOPS (Trading Options for ProfitS) in Sunnyvale Saturday - more info at:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
as well as Sentiment commentary .

 Last week's 1% correction !! up until Friday, where it retraced it back up, did result in negative A/D (advance/decline) breadth for the week, a rara avis these days. Over 1,000 declines for the week. Only the NAZ (Nasdaq) ended the week slightly higher.

Investors Intelligence (??) Bears hit a new low last week, at 14.3%, although I feel the AAII is more predictive. Although record numbers of inflows into equity funds this year have switched, the past two weeks saw big inflows into MMFs (money markets), with minor outflows from equitys (1 week delayed).

Insider selling - still high- has abated recently, as has the selling of gold "Commercials).
Here are the numbers:

Date>		12/6/2013	11/29/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16020	16086
	NAZ	4062	4059
	SPX	1805	1805
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.9/3.6	5.9/2.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.47	2.36
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.8	13.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1059/2133	1844/1329
Weekly Net:		-1074	515
Cumulative:		152884	153958
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	323/259	424/126
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	386/83	541/67
McClellan	Oscillator	-18	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	213	344
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.1	55.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.6	47.3
	Bear	27.5	28.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	6/25	n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(22k)	n/a
CEOinsider	selling	29:1	56:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	24.2B	15.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		412B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		972/392/248
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.29%

  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FESTIVUS WEEK

Ho, Ho, Ho- HUM

Here are the Sentiment Indicators for last week's Holiday-shortened week, along with commentary at:

 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

  To receive this FREE weekly Examiner.com column, just click on SUBSCRIBE, with apologies for more Popups than Orville Redenbacher!

 Upcoming events ;

also reminiscing for the good old days of reportage in the 20thC, commentary on Insider Trading statistics, and a scathing review of MSM -MainStreamMedia- by one of its own.

Last week's numbers -

Date>		11/29/2013	11/22/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16086	16064
	NAZ	4059	3991
	SPX	1805	1804
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	5.9/2.5	8.6/3.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.36	2.7
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.7	12.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1844/1329	1484/1718
Weekly Net:		515	-234
Cumulative:		153958	153443
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	424/126	458/150
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	541/67	444/95
McClellan	Oscillator	13	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	344	325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.7	53.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.4	15.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47.3	34.4
	Bear	28.3	29.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	n/a	15/18
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	n/a	(51K)
CEOinsider	selling	56:1	60:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	1.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	15.1B	(5.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	412B	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	972/392/248	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Ho, Ho, Ho- HUM

BEN-Official

Giving thanks to Bernanke for this wild ride in the stock market - he even alerted everyone, transparently, to what he was doing; yet only now are investors tiptoeing into U.S equities. Will he be around when it is time to depart? Just like the stockbroker who defines Long Term hold as up to when he retires from his firm.

Just like Groundhog Day, new highs in the markets abound, every day. Just for comparison, listed below are the multi-year highs as well as last weeks Indicators:

Date>		11/22/2013	11/15/2013
Indices:	DJIA	16064	15961
	NAZ	3991	1985
	SPX	1804	1798
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.6/3.2	8.9/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.7	2.7
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.3	12.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1484/1718	2049/1140
Weekly Net:		-234	909
Cumulative:		153443	153677
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	458/150	420/124
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	444/95	377/120
McClellan	Oscillator	2	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	325	393
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.6	52.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.5	15.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34.4	39.2
	Bear	29.5	27.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	15/18	12/23
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(51K)	(66k)
CEOinsider	selling	60:1	36:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	4.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.5B)	(3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.31%

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	16064	6626
	NAZ	3991	1114
	SPX	1804	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		154367	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.09:108	May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	(1514).
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	925/349/257
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BEN-Official

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

Sentiment Extremes this week include the number (%) of Bears in the Investors Intelligence survey (wire house reports) - a new multi-year low of 15.5%, down from 15.6% previously; meanwhile the Bulls are still above 50, at 52.6% - the AAII has backed off a bit from its extremes. Normally the AAII is the more meaningful, but they seem to be lulled into the Yellen glow.

The Bullish % rose to another recent high of 83% - of stocks on Buy signals. The VIX dropped to 12.2, still above its 8.8 many moons ago.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/15/2013	11/8/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15961	15761
	NAZ	1985	3919
	SPX	1798	1770
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.9/3.3	9.9/3.8
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.7	2.6
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.2	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2049/1140	1240/1961
Weekly Net:		909	-721
Cumulative:		153677	152768
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	420/124	389/107
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	377/120	372/129
McClellan	Oscillator	13	-32
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	393	463
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.6	55.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.5	15.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.2	45.5
	Bear	27.5	21.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12/23	10/20
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(66k)	(94k)
CEOinsider	selling	36:1	50:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	5.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.1B)	4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		Sept.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		Sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

THANK YE BERNANKE II

Here are last week's Sentiment numbers - still at high levels after gliding though most of the troublesome JASON semi-cycle for the stock market. Can it continue?:
More commentary at :
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
along with a schedule of local investment meetups.
Also worth noting - an update on my LEAP strategy from my talk last weekend at:

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com

Date>		11/8/2013	11/1/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15761	15615
	NAZ	3919	3922
	SPX	1770	1761
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.9/3.8	9.7/3.8
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.6	2.55
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1240/1961	1154/2032
Weekly Net:		-721	-878
Cumulative:		152768	153489
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	389/107	477/60
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	372/129	455/103
McClellan	Oscillator	-32	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	463	570
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.2	52.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.6	16.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.5	45
	Bear	21.8	21.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10/20	14/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(94k)	(82K)
CEOinsider	selling	50:1	69:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	4.3B	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	4B	1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Sept.	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	Sept.	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.32%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THANK YE BERNANKE II

THANKYE BERNANKE:

. Margin debt, currently over a record $400B, is due to speculation and low rates. Market breadth, as measure by Advance/Declines and New Highs v. Lows, is very strong now. The Bullish Per Cent, stocks on a BUY signal, is at recent record highs(see below). Money is FINALLY starting to flow into Mutual Funds, after a recent 25% market run up this year. (Legal) Insider Selling of key employees -CEOs, etc.- jumped again to 62 to 1 over Buyers.

Lastly, the Investors Intelligence Bull to Bear ratio is now more than 3 to 1, with levels at 52 and 16, respectively!! The AAII ratio is not much weaker.   

 More commentary can be found at:

 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		11/1/2013	10/25/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15615	15570
	NAZ	3922	3943
	SPX	1761	1759
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.7/3.8	9.6/3.5
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.55	2.74
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1154/2032	2047/1145
Weekly Net:		-878	902
Cumulative:		153489	154367
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	477/60	688/40
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	455/103	681/64
McClellan	Oscillator	-13	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	570	513
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.6	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	18.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45	*49.2
	Bear	21.5	**17.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	14/14	8/15
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(82K)	(78K)
CEOinsider	selling	69:1	41:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	9.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	1B	54B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	401B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	923/368/249
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.31%

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THANKYE BERNANKE: