BACK IN ACTION:

After an extended weekend caused by weather on the Eastern coast, a review of last week saw contained sideways motion between 1400 and 1420 on the S&P 500 (SPX). So far today (Hallowe'en) markets have re-opened but are anything BUT scary.
Indicators seem to be mostly Bullish into the election, with the put/call ratio up to 75 and the McClellan Oscillator minus 37 ( I like -50 for oversold). Opinion surveys, which report midweek, are diverging, with the Inv.Intell. complacent but the  AAII nervous. Bullish % actually gave a SELL signal with its 7 point drop, and Insider Selling leapt up from 12:1 to 55:1 over Buying.

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		10/26/2012	10/19/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13107	13343
	NAZ	2987	3005
	SPX	1411	1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.0/3.4	9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.65	2.58
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	75	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.8	17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1151/1998	1864/1288
Weekly Net:		-847	576
Cumulative:		141186	142033
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	231/113	468/70
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	117/186	220/131
McClellan	Oscillator	-37	-18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	381	557
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.5	42.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	27.7	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29.2	28.7
	Bear	43.1	44.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(3)/30	.  4/24
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	12:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	.9B	5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	AUG.:	287B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	AUG.:	715/270/230
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BACK IN ACTION:

BACK FROM VACATION:

After a choppy three weeks going nowhere, Friday's Anniversary tank finalized what could be a Triple Top in the SPX, with Sentiment Indicators not indicating much. The NASD/NYSE Volume remains high, a speculative sign, breadth is still strong and the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. The Bull Bear surveys contrast with the AAII showing huge Bear numbers.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio remains high (Bullish), yet in Barron's option column, Larry McMillan's over all equity put/call ratio is coming off its lows - a negative for the market over the past year (very high inverse correlation).
On the downside, MMFs gained billions of $$ while equity mutual funds continued to lose them; Bullish % - a great showing of overbought SPX stocks, is high.
Below are the numbers for the past two weeks, as well as the 7-year highs and lows above that:

Date>		7Yr.HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	14093	6626
	NAZ	2937	1114
	SPX	1561	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		143458	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	May.'12:110	-100 :10/08
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	-1514
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	381B(7/07)
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

 LAST WEEK'S SENTIMENT NUMBERS:

Date>

10/12/2012

10/19/2012

Indices:

DJIA

13328

13343

NAZ

3044

3005

SPX

1428

1433

WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE

7.7/2.9

9.3/3.6

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish

2.66

2.58

nasd/nyse

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

68

68

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

16.1

17.06

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

884/2268

1864/1288

Weekly Net:

-1768

576

Cumulative:

141457

142033

Weekly

NYSE hi/low

294/71

468/70

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

163/132

220/131

McClellan

Oscillator

-25

-18

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

520

557

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull:tues

45.7

42.6

Surveys

Bear:-5yrs

25.5

26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed.

30.6

28.7

Bear

38.8

44.5

COT:Change w/w

large/small (net)k

.  4/24

CEOinsider

selling

11:1

12:1

3-box rev

Bullish%-

76

76

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

(2.3B)

1weeklag

MMF flows

Change in $B

(1.4B)

5.8B

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

AUG:

287B

ETF:Eqty/

Int'l/Bond

AUG:

715/270/230

Assets in

Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

n/a

0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BACK FROM VACATION:

FOUR MORE YEARS?:

Readers of my blogs/Examiner columns are familiar with the Election Year stock market model since 1900 produced by Ned Davis Research - going according to plan ( an UP September), now the divergence begins:
According to the chart, from October 1 on, if the Incumbent is to win, all is well and the market (i.e. the economy) will rise until year end. Only if the Incumbent is to lose (not get termed out) will October and the rest of 2012 be flat to down. Of course, as we know, there are exceptions.

Last week's prediction of the market letting off the gas (not hitting the brake) held true, with extremes in the overbought area. Things have modulated - the McClellan Oscillator fell to minus 29; the AAII bull/bear ratio is even. The speculative NASD to NYSE Volume ratio is again high, as is the CBOE Equity put/call ratio - both Bullish. Contrarily, the MMFund flows reversed again to INFLOWS and equity mutual funds lost funds.

Next week I shall again (!) be on vacation to San Diego, away from my desktop until the following week. Since I am visiting my cousin who is a V.P. at J. P. Morgan, I want to show him an example of my DITM strategy using his stock. It demonstrates how one can earn 10% with almost NO risk. For details, please see:

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com.

There are also two important investment meetings coming up next week, listed in my Examiner column ( the reader can subscribe to the column for future meetups and columns at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the  Sentiment numbers:

 

Date>		9/28/2012	9/21/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13437	13579
	NAZ	3116	3179
	SPX	1440	1460
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.9/3.6	9.2/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.47	2.09
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.73	13.98
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1080/2083	1371/1768
Weekly Net:		-1003	-397
Cumulative:		142058	143061
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	426/38	505/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	293/75	332/74
McClellan	Oscillator	-29	4
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	749	888
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51	54.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	24.5	24.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	36.1	37.5
	Bear	36.5	33.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	0/24.	9/22.
CEOinsider	selling	44:1	42:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	8.5B	(10.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.27%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FOUR MORE YEARS?: