TIC TACS?, SEN-SEN?,LAVORIS?:

This is the worst market"breadth" I've ever seen: NYSE adv./decl. last week were 203 to 3017! With 4 New Highs and 618 New Lows -similar on Nasdaq. This brought the McClellan Oscillator down to -96 which is normally an oversold condition, at least shortterm. That lasted about 1/2 hour today.
Also registering a "Buy" signal was the CBOE put/call ratio of 87, and the AAII Bears jumped from 39% to 56%. Contrary Indicators do not usually become effective until the peaks and troughs, meaning the investor is usually correct until the extremes.
Finally, the Bullish per cent fell precipitously from 48 to 28, a recent low, but probably not through yet. It would have to break 2% to post a new low!
Many analysts and talking heads are calling for a bottom after the retest of Oct.'02 (which we fell through today -7286), including Michael Burke of Investors Intelligence, as noted by www.headlinecharts.com, a very comprehensive and pictorial market website.
At the same time Gold is retesting its highs of $1,000 which could be a resting place for a bit, viewing the MACD on the GLD ETF. The more people buy this, the more gold they have to purchase to back it - it now owns over 1,000 tons. (GLL is the ultrashort). Funnily enough, gold is rising along with the dollar, while the oil commodity is heading south.
Here are the sentiment numbers:
MktSentiment. 2/20/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7365………7850.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1441………1534…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 770………. 826………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……87……….74……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 49………43…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-96……….-16……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-180……..-125……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31.1……….32.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 41.1……….38.7……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……21.6/56.7….32.9/39.2…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..66……….64……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……2099……..1908…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…28………….48………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 4:1……7:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(.7B)…….(.2B)…
ETF InflowsL……… (5.5B)……(2.4B)…
Money Market Inflows: (16B)……(3B)…… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TIC TACS?, SEN-SEN?,LAVORIS?:

DEJA VU WEEK:

Once again the sentiment indicators barely budged while the markets swung midweek: New Lows stayed 10 to 15: 1 versus New Highs and breadth was negative, forcing the McClellan Oscillator to -16; polling surveys remained inverted whle CEO Insider selling fell to 7:1 over buying. Even the VIX stayed the same.
Mutual fund and money market outflows were barely negative and the Bullish Per Cent stayed midrange in a triangle.
The economy had several hopeful signs, including the Baltic Dry Index soaring higher to 1908, although its high was still much higher at 11,700. The approved stimulus package promises to do very little this year and mortgage resets started again this month. Rumors are that Mexicans are sending Dollars back to the U.S.!
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 2/13/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7850………8280.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1534………1591…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 826………868………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……74……….69……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43……….43…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-16…………30……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…125……….127……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…32.3………..35.2……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.7……….36.3……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……32.9/39.2…..24.6/44.0…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..64………..63……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1642………..1070…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…48……………53……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 7:1…… 11:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(.2B)…….. (.25B)…
ETF InflowsL……… (2.4B)……….0…
Money Market Inflows: (3B)……..(26B)… … ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DEJA VU WEEK:

PICK-A-STOCK = WHACK-A-MOLE:

With the stock market averages exactly where they were 4 months ago, despite record Volatility, picking winners in stocks or sectors by technical momentum is like whack-a-mole - every time one pops its head up it gets smacked! One very profitable strategy has been to reverse any 1-day strong move the next day, although the 3-day up, down cycle seems to also work, unless it doesn't.
This sideways, intra-range action has resulted in a regressing to the mean of most indicators lately. Breadth was very strong last week, although New Lows to Highs were 16:1. Money flows out of mutual funds and ETFs were stagnant, although $26B was drained from Money Markets. CEO insider selling rose to higher levels.
Here are the data:
MktSentiment. 2/6/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8280………8000.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1591………1476…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 868………825………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……69……….73……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43……….44…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………30………….-23……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…127………..156……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…35.2…………34.8……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 36.3…………38.0……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.6/44.0…….25.3/47.3…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63…………70……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1642………..1070…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…53…………..51……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 11:1……13:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows … (.25B)……..(.8B)…
ETF InflowsL……… 0………… .5B…
Money Market Inflows: (26B)………5B… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PICK-A-STOCK = WHACK-A-MOLE:

HAIR OF THE DOG:

As a former bar owner/bartender I can vouch for the "hair of the dog" tactic for alleviating a hangover - but it should not be used WHEN THE PARTY IS STILL DRUNK! Which is what the Gov't Stimulus plan does, instead of suffering the pain short term. Instead of the taxpayer (mis)handling the toxic debt, how about letting the Private sector - investors, SWFs, etc. participate in a Dutch auction and let the market set the price?
With the worst ever January market action behind us, what does the future hold? The January barometer only forecasts well in up markets (down markets were split even: 11 up, 11 down in the past 6 decades).
Despite a wild up-down week, the sentiment signals were pretty benign from the previous week. Any predictive bias seems to be to the upside, with both the Inv.Intell. and AAII surveys still inverted with the Bears leading; breadth diverged positively while the averages dropped or stayed even, and Insider selling was quite low.
Previous TSAA guest, local Charles Biderman of Trimtabs.com was profiled by Barron's this week. He is basically negative on the markets, and posits that much of the large ($4T) amount of cash in money market funds is committed to reserves, redemptions, retirement, and even current living expenses.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 1/30/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8000……….8077.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1476……….1477…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 825………..831………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……73………..77……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 44……….. 47…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-23…………-31……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…156…………143……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…34.8…………38.7……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.0…………36.7……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……25.3/47.3……27.2/46.3…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..70…………75……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1070…………980…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…51…………..46sell……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 11:1……13:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows … (.8B)………. .4B
ETF InflowsL……… .5B………….(5.1B)……
Money Market Inflows: 5B…………(19B… ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

HAIR OF THE DOG: