STOCK MARKETS - WILD AND CRAZY GUYS:

These past few weeks have seen market moves not seen in a generation, if ever. The cyclical symmetry to the Great Depression becomes more obvious each day - even the dates: 1929-32, with an Echo bust in 1938 is repeated by 2000-02, 2008.
Although government bailout action trumps the Sentiment signals, aided by hedge fund liquidations and short-covering, several extremes appeared in the past few days:
Although we broke the recent Trading Range (it is possible that this current 10% rally is the common retest to the Support turned Resistance) , several of the indicators below foresaw the rally. New Highs to Lows on the NY and Nasdaq - 5 to 1700; a record 104 on the CBOE put/call ratio, exceeding the OEX ratio; the VIX touched 80 again; the Volume on the SDS (Ultrashort SPX etf) at record numbers, as was the insider buying to selling. Also, the SPX was as far below the 200MA as in 1932.
Finally, the McClellan charts were both oversold, and the Bullish per cent sank to 8.
Still, technicians, such as Mark Liebovit and Louise Yamada, would argue there is farther down to go. And Charles Biderman states that we are not seeing stock buybacks or insider buying so typical at bottoms - down 90% and 24% Y/Y in November.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 11/21/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8046……8497………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1384…..1516…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 800………873………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 92…..104nh…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 72.6……..66…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-64…………..-2 ……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1500………-1148.. ……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…30.9…………..31.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 43.6………….46.1…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……836………….838 829
AAII-Bull/Bear ………38.3/42.5….24.4/57.1………....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 14.2……….15.7 … …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- …….……8……………26………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 3.3:1….n/a…. ………..97………….3.3:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (3.3B)………(.2B)
ETF InflowsL……….6.8B………..2.8B……
Money Market Inflows: .42B……….23B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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STOCK MARKETS - WILD AND CRAZY GUYS:

SEEING RED-GETTING MAD:

It is apparent where the above phrase came from - in recent weeks, the hundreds of stocks, ETFs, Muni CEFs, etc. on the screens are 100% RED, as in down - with an occasional up day. But it is like the traffic light that turns green to let about 5 cars pass, then back to red for a couple minutes in the other direction.
Going on another stress-relief vacation down the California coast, I'm having to post a partial list of indicators this week, catching up near Thanksgiving. Despite the huge swings of this past week, these signals are pretty much the same as last week: exceptions include the recently added Baltic Dry Index (a Global Economy proxy), finally bouncing up a bit; Mutual fund inflows were quiet, but the SDS (inverse SPX etf) Volume was near its high, indicating pessimism.
Here are the numbers- fill in the blanks from Barron's, etc.:

DJIA ………. ………….8943………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. ……….1647…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. ………….930………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… ……..82…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. …………..56.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-2 (Thurs)….46……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1148..Thurs…-1134……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31.9………….30.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 46.1………….48.3…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……838………..829nl 829
AAII-Bull/Bear ………………..44.8/33.3..……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… ………19.4… …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- ………26…………..43sell………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. ………6.6:1…. ………..97………….4-10/08
Mutual Fund Inflows (.2B)…………(.5B
ETF InflowsL……….2.8B…………4.6B……
Money Market Inflows: .23B……….138B)… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SEEING RED-GETTING MAD:

OBAMA EARNS HIGH MARX:

President-elect Obama's top priority is to bail out the auto industry, a failed model of share-the-wealthfare of unionized complacency. Just as Japan refused to lose, taking decades to recover, the U.S. is following suit with autos, AIG, consumers - who's next? Bailing out OPEC because of declining oil prices?
Since Wagoner took over GM in 2000 (well before the credit crunch) its stock price has steadily tanked from just under $100 to its current $3 per share, meanwhile receiving millions in compensation . John Mauldin reports that there is now a car for every American adult, thanks to "forward-selling, incentives and rebates".
It took 70 years for the DJIA to reach 1000, but only two days last week to fall that much. Still, some indicators were bullish ON the market:
Although ETF and mutual fund inflows barely moved, Money Market funds gained a near-record $138B, mostly into Gov't funds. The AAII Bulls reverted back to a majority of 44 to 33, although Investors' Intelligence survey stayed cautious at 30 vs. 48, and public shorting rose to 19 over remaining Specialists.
New highs remain single digit, although fewer new lows occurred for the week.
A new indicator - Baltic Dry Index - reached its multi-year low (2001) of 829 last week as this proxy for global economies reflected ships stuck at the dock due to frozen credit.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 11/07/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8943…………9325………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1647…………1720…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 930…………..968………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …82……………68…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 56.1………….59.9…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………46…………..72……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1134……..-1441……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…30.3…………23.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 48.3…………52.7…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……829nl 829
AAII-Bull/Bear ……44.8/33.3…….37.1/40.3..……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…19.4…………17… …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- ………43sell…………37………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers.6.6:1…..3.6:1…. ………..97………….4-10/08
Mutual Fund Inflows (.5B)……….(2.3B)…
ETF InflowsL……….4.6B……….(.4B)… ……
Money Market Inflows: .138B……..(3B)… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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OBAMA EARNS HIGH MARX:

THE RISE AND FALL:

Maybe there is a reason Autumn is called "FALL" - it seems everything is: stock and housing prices, confidence, temperatures, etc. Is it a coincidence that the highest that the DJIA ever reached was Oct.9, 2007, and the lowest since then was Oct.10, 2008! If the world seems less wealthy these days, it's because the global markets have lost nearly $10 T just in October, with the U.S. $6.5T of it; and the real estate market added a $5T hit recently.
One bright note wast the tremendous success last weekend of the 1st Annual Wyckoff/TSAA Conference, with nearly 200 attendees and speakers from around the world. For the wrapup, go to the TSAASF.org website and see the speakers' notes.
In a more rational world where fund managers aren't racing for the doors ( @ 1/3 hedge funds are expected to call it quits by choice or necessity), Sentiment still seems a bit oversold, even after the huge rally last week. Extremes include: a very negative McClellan Summation Index, although the Oscillator is over bought at +72, up from a minus 38 last week; newsletter survey Investors Intelligence, rarely inverted to the Bear plurality, is more than double the Bulls; and although the Public to Specialist shorting is still high, the Insider selling isa t a record low 3.6:1!
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 10/31/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9325…………8378………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1720…………1552…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 968…………..876………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …68……………83…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 59.9…………79nh…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………72…………..-38……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1441………-1514nl……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…23.1………….22.2nl……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 52.7…………54.4nh…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.1/40.3……38.7/38.7..……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…17………….22nh… …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- ………37…………….8………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers.3.6:1…….4:1…. ………..97………….4-10/08
Mutual Fund Inflows (2.3B)………200M
ETF InflowsL……….(.4B)……….500M……
Money Market Inflows: .(3B)………17B… ………144B

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

THE RISE AND FALL: