Monday, August 28, 2006

SAME OLE, SAME OLE:

I will be on vacation next week - will try to catch up ASAP.
Although coming off a flat to down market last week, the bulls still dominate in the sentiment area: NASDAQ short interest is again in record territory; the CBOE put/call jumped higher last week to 69 from 60 (although the ISEE call/put also jumped on Friday - not a good sign).Now at 151 it needs to go to 200 to be bearish. Most others below remained the same, or backed off slightly.
Mktsentiment.blogspot 8/25/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11284 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2140 2243 1114
S&P500 1295 1325 776

CBOE Equity 69 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 12.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 151 299-12/04 82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 4 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 467 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 40.0 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 34.7 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 39.4/37.4 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 66 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.71 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 54 88 -2/04 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 21, 2006

TW3: or, THIS WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS

Reminiscent of the TV comedy news show many years ago, last week certainly was unusual, although considering this time of year, light Volume whipsawing and option expiry one could expect something.
As any veteran trader knows, there is quite a difference between Analysis and Trading - you can be right on one and wrong on the other. Last week's blog called for a rally based on oversold Sentiment numbers, but the rally might also be due to the fact that I went totally flat to go on vacation after being soured on all Sectors .
I also wrote about the Trading Range from 10,700 to 11,300 on the DJIA, which seems to have again bounded price action, as the post-expiration Monday reverses almost all of last week's moves with profit-taking.
Looking ahead, the only powerful sign is the Barron's Panic/Euphoria master indicator down to a Bullishly low -0.75, the area of previous major lows. Most others have backed off from the week before's extremes, with the McClellan Oscillator bumping up to the +50 Resistance level.Both the VIX and CBOE Equity put/call ratio dropped precipitably, as did the Public shorting ratio.Nimble trading or keeping the powder dry seems to be the order of the day, at least until Labor Day.
Mktsentiment.blogspot 8/18/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11381 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2163 2243 1114
S&P500 1302 1325 776

CBOE Equity 60 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 11.6 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 77 299-12/04 82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 45 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 393 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 40.9 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 36.6 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 30.5/35.8 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 64 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.75 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- (.82%/12%) 54 88 -2/04 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, August 14, 2006

LET'S GET READY TO RALLY!:

Since November 2005 the DJIA has risen less than 200 points - a 1-day climb. It has moved sideways( except one moment of irrational exuberance last May) in a 600 point Trading Range from 10,700 to 11,300. As always, the question is whether this has been Re-accumulation or Distribution.
The fact that we broke some major technical Support Trendlines, including a rising diagonal trend in May, coupled with the worst time of year, historically, for stocks, the Intermediate picture looks bleak.
Short term, however, many Sentiment Indicators have been stretched to the Positive levels, including the Citicorp Panic Index at -0.68, the lowest in several months, and at a level where previous rallies started ( last Spring and last Fall).
Also short term is the CBOE put/call ratio at 76, and the Inv.Intell. survey, narrowing even farther to 40 Bull and 37 Bears.

Mktsentiment.blogspot 8/11/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11088 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2057 2243 1114
S&P500 1266 1325 776

CBOE Equity 76 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 112 299-12/04 82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -7 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 222 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 40.2 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 37.1 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 36.6/41.5 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.68 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- (82%/12%) 50 88 -2/04 46-8/04.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Wednesday, August 9, 2006

WAG THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER:

The double bottom liftoffs, after the May deluge, came in mid-June and mid-July; preceding these were some discrete record high numbers in one statistic I follow - Public vs. NYSE Specialists' shorting. A short term indicator of Public panic, these were at 7.26 (a new high) on the June 6 week end, and 7.84 on June 30, also a new high. Last week this number jumped from 5.66 to 6.93.
Also slightly Bullish is the small narrowing of the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear spread (more Bears, fewer Bulls) and the widening of the Inverted AAII spread (same result).
See the grid below for other minor changes:

Mktsentiment.blogspot
8/4/06 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 10240 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2085 2243 1114
S&P500 1279 1325 776
CBOE Equity 65 87-5/04 46-1/03put/call ratio
VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05
ISEE-call/put 116 299-12/04 82-4/02(>200/Bearish)
McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 30 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 200 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04
Newsletter Surveys:Inv.Intel -
Bull: 41.5 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear: 36.2 38.2-3/03 16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear 31.5/47.2 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24
Barron's Panic/Euphoric Master Idx -0.56 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05
Bullish%- (.82%/12%): 53 88 -2/04 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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