CROSSCURRENTS:

For the past few weeks that I've been watching money flow of mutual funds I've noticed that ETF Volume zigs while mutual funds zag. Per AMG Data, last week, for example, inflows were $1.4B, although ex-ETF funds it was almost a Billion outflow. I still remember shortly after I broke into this game that fund outflows were the rule for most of 1988, after the '87 Crashette, while the market was slowly rising.

Looking at the matrix below, notable extremes are: McClellan Osc. at its 50 Resistance level (52) and the Summation looks to break up thru the zero line even with the market down today.

Banking stocks and Utilities are hitting new highs and breadth last week was positive (5:1), with the weaker Nasdaq only 2:1. Odd lot shorting was up 50% from the previous week.Both the Panic Index and Bullish Per Cent slipped lower (bullish), but Market Vane is up to 62% Bulls. This could portend a slight hiatus.

Mktsentiment.blogspot 7/28/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11219 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2094 2243 1114
S&P500 1278 1325 776

CBOE Equity 58 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 96 299-12/04 82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 52 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)`-21 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 42.2 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 34.5 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 34.9/43 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.55 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- .82%/12% 49 88 -2/04 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

CROSSCURRENTS:

2nd Anniversary Revision:

As www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com enters its 3rd year of analyzing and reporting major Sentiment Indicators, it will now start adding a matrix of the most important ones, with their recent multi-year highs and lows for reference.
As you might note, most are coming off their oversold Bullish extreme levels - the exceptions being: CBOE put/call ratio still high at 71; the AAII survey showed Bulls at a low of 23.9 and Bears at 57.8. Marty Zweig's dictum of 2 times in 3 months with 9:1 up/down volume days just added a third yesterday (Monday), although today's failed followthrough is giving some back.
Only time will tell if we are just working off the Bearish sentiment or setting up a Summer rally.

7/21/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 10868 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2020 2243 1114
S&P500 1240 1325 776

CBOE Equity 71 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 17.4 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 125 299-12/04 82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -14 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)`-151 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 42.1 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 33.7 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 23.9/57.8 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 58 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.46 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

2nd Anniversary Revision:

1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

Since early May, the DJIA has lost nearly 1,000 points, with the Nasty Nasdaq down 13%. Despite last week's slaughter, not all Sentiment Indicators reflected a cathartic Fear or Climactic Volume - which tells me the bottom is still not in, although an oversold Summer rally could set in.
The exceptions that were showing defensive hedging/concern were mostly option related: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio at a high 76 (although the ISEE call/put was not excited, at 127 -scarcely above last week's 124), and the VIX went back up to 18 from 13.
The McClellan Oscillator went down through the zero line to - 23 (support @ -50) and the Summation remained in negative territory at -154.
Finally, market newsletter surveys backed off slightly as did the Panic/Euphoria Index, while shorting - by Public vs. NY Specialists and short interest -remained high.
Option expiration occurs this Friday, so expect volatility.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

LAZY DAYS OF SUMMER:

Like the markets, the Sentiment Indicators have backed off their extremes after the June 500 point rally on the Dow. The VIX spike retraced down to the top of the old Trading Range Resistance @ 13.97 (from 18); the CBOE put/call ratio, is down from mid-June's 73 to still a Bullish 63; also Bullish is the Panic/Euphoria master indicator at -0.58, deeply under water. Remember, this number broke above the 30 surface back in May 5, just before the steep decline.
The AAII survey is more inverted at 37.7 Bulls vs. 42.6 Bears, while the I.I. survey is returning to its more Bulls-dominant ratio, at 38.7/34.4.The McClellan Oscillator has retraced down from its extreme of 72, now at 31; the Summation accumulation is heading up to the zero line at -232.
Finally, Short Interest and NYSE Specialist to Public shorting remain high.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

LAZY DAYS OF SUMMER:

GOOOOOOOOAALLLLL!:

So where are we headed with this market? Most technicians seem to agree with the Bear scenario, led by the prolific data of Ned Davis. After Thursday's intense shortcovering rally of over 200 pts., we seem to be in a corrective rally - at least until some of the Sentiment Indicators dig out of their holes. According to Robert Shiller's 17-year-old survey, nearly 93% of current responders believe the market will be higher by next May - Exuberant!
Although the Investors Intelligence Bulls and Bears have become untied from last week, they are still extreme at 37 vs. 36 (the AAII is still just barely inverted at 38/39); and although Advances vs. Declines on the big board were more than 3:1, the new hi's, lows were the opposite.
Big rallies from gold, commercial metals and energy (now 28% of Fidelity's funds) from oversold levels are not producing the lead changes necessary for a new Bull market to emerge.
With the holiday approaching, both the VIX and the CBOE put/call ratio subsided substantially. Markets typically rally during this period, after the late June, post-triple-witching selloff. Finally, the Bullish Per cent has climbed up to 55 - not quite a 6% buy reversal, yet.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

GOOOOOOOOAALLLLL!: