SPRING FORWARD:

Just when you think this tired old Bull market has finally rolled over because of its overdue length, semi-annual seasonality, IRS and IRA contributions, and overbought conditions, we get a big 200-point spurt that reignites it. Could it be the oil rich foreigners are buying us out via equities, global real estate, etc.? Is Dubai really buying Daimler/Chrysler? It surely cannot be the locals, who are ponying up for gas and the trucked-in products that rely on it, while we get higher borrowing rates - going from 1% to 5%.
NYSE Advance/Declines zoom to 2:1 for the week bringing the oversold McClellan Oscillator back to the safe zero line at -2. Those perspicacious AAII people go Bearish on us - inverting the Bull/Bear ratio by 41 to 34, a sure Bullish import. The Bulls in the Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio are evaporating, as it moves to another recent low of 15.
On the flip side, however, we have the Panic/Euphoria Index hitting a new high of -0.19, well above water in the complacent area, and Public vs Specialists are backing away from shorting by a big % move, from 5.68 to 4.44.
So we still have no dominant signal as we stay in the upward biased Trading Range.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SPRING FORWARD:

STATUS QUO VADIS:

Easter and the Income Tax deadline isn't doing much for stocks, as they continue to meander listlessly. The DJIA was up a "hare" for the week, and the SPX and Nasdaq down a bit.
Some selling in stocks and closed end funds was due to raising cash for taxes - a possible buying opportunity for muni CEFs. Technical damage was done to the Dow and SPX with breakdowns of the 50-day MA, Horizontal and rising bottoms Trend Lines.
Most Indicators remain neutral with the exception of a couple on both sides of the market:
First the Bullish signs - the CBOE put/call ratio (and ISE call/put) added to the positive cause, as did the McClellan Oscillator with its minus 49.8 reading (-50 seems to result in short term turnarounds).
Fuel for the Bears include more complacency in the surveys with the I.I. spread increasing with its 53 to 24 reading. Finally, the Panic/Euphoria Index in Barron's hit a relatively high record of -0.24, the least negative in many months, but a far cry from +.60 needed for Euphoria.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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STATUS QUO VADIS:

BLISSFULLY ONWARD:

Just like George W., the market is "Staying The Course" in an upward sliding Trading Range. Unsure if investors are frozen in panic or bored to complacency, the Sentiment Indicators are carved in stone.Reflecting 0 change in the Nasdaq last week and 1 point in the SPX, nothing is giving any signal of change, outside of an ugly Advance/Decline reversal, causing the McClellan Oscillator to bounce down near the -50 range, closing the week at -36.
On the negative side, the Panic/Euphoria once again popped its head above water (-0.30) at the -0.29 level - far from the Euphoria of +.60 since its recent revision. So anything above -0.3 can be hazardous, as with last August's extended decline.
For the last 5 months I have been testing both the SPX-mini and SPX Commitment of Traders for some sign of a "Tell", but have found nothing so far in this lackadaisical market. Using the change and cumulative numbers, all I found was that the SPX had a better correlation to a DJIA that rose 238 points from Christmas to now. Otherwise all were coincident, choppy reversals.
Newsletter surveys are showing a widening spread of more complacent bulls and fewer bears - not a happy sign.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BLISSFULLY ONWARD:

ENNUI GO!:

Despite End-Of-Quarter window dressing, and a volatile week (at least for the Blue Chips) the Sentiment Indicators are amazingly, flatline boring. Although not indicating a readiness to surge to the upside, other than first of the month surges, there is little complacency to indicate a market top, even though we are at some Resistance levels (trend channels, 5-year highs, etc.). OTC stocks seem to be stronger, as seen by a 528 to 71 new high/new low ratio. Although Volume has been weaker lately, I received an e-mail from Barron's Michael Santoli to watch out for increase due to the merger of the NYSE and Archipelago- a chartist's nightmare.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

ENNUI GO!: