EARLY EDITION

On vacation for a couple weeks, so here is the data (most stats) for the past week:
Most data slightly weaker than previous - Delta MSI (stocks on BUYs) had a nice jump up (Bullish), as are most breadth and sentiment indicators recently. VIX broke down below 10 - a good time to buy calls, as we're not out of the Danger Zone yet. Week turned negative toward the end, but still closed to new weekly highs (except NAS).
Here are the numbers so far:

Date		9/22/2017	9/15/2017
Indices:	DJIA	22349	22268
	NAZ	6427	6448
	SPX	2502	2500
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	N/A	10.0/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		N/A	1.85
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	N/A	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.7	10.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	65	57
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		N/A	2097/945
Weekly Net:		N/A	1152
Cumulative:		N/A	180684
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	N/A	373/33
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	N/A	416/88
McClellan	Oscillator	15	38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	648	535
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	47.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19	20.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	40.1	41.3
	Bear	27.2	22
US$-WSJ		92.2	91.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	weeklate
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.4B)	16.8B*
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.26	2.20
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.44	1.37
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	114.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EARLY EDITION

TECHNICIANS' DELIGHT

Thanks be to Barron's for their reportage, and a tip of the hat to Sam Stoval of CFRA (much to the displeasure of his papa - Robert, I'm sure) ,and Vito Racanelli's column, several Technical trivia have emerged about the stock market:
2017 is becoming a rara avis historically for stocks, with only 8 days of more than 1% Volatility, vs. the average of 50/year since WWII - with 32 New Highs for the SPX - twice the average during that time. And, only 17 times that Aug. and Sept. ( so far !!) both closed positively.
Vito brings up the issue of declining public stocks, which has been cut in half over the past 20 years ( 3600 vs. 7200 in 1996); private equity seems to be replacing IPOs, due to pressures of being public and private $$ less demanding of activists. I remember the company's mandate before 2000 was what was best for the company and consumer, where it changed to  best for the stockholder ( whose major owners were CEOs, etc.) Interesting.

Not much notable amongst Sentiment and Breadth numbers this week, although markets did make new highs, and the NYSE and Nasdaq new highs jumped, and $$ flowed out of Equities and into MMFs again. And Advance/Declines made a turnaround reversal again from the prior week.

Here are the numbers:

Date		9/15/2017	9/8/2017
Indices:	DJIA	22268	21797
	NAZ	6448	6360
	SPX	2500	2461
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/5.4	7.5/3.3*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.85	2.27
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.2	12.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	57	54
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2097/945	1227/1839
Weekly Net:		1152	-612
Cumulative:		180684	179534
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	373/33	280/88
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	416/88	300/132
McClellan	Oscillator	38	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	535	347
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.1	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20.2	19.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	41.3	29.3
	Bear	22	35.7
US$-WSJ		91.8	91.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	16.8B*	11.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.20	2.05
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.37	1.27
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.5	115.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TECHNICIANS' DELIGHT

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

I was Shocked ! Shocked ! when I saw the stock market futures last night and more so when it opened today. After all the turmoil - domestically and globally of the weekend, and a dismal August for stocks, the next 4-5 weeks are consistently the worst of the year historically. So we're not out of the woods yet, at least for a minor correction - a Recession is probably still 18-24 months away. But when it hits, it will be a doozy as US and global Debt rises exponentially out of control.

Volume was down, due to the 4-day week, breadth was slightly negative ( Advances, New Highs, etc.); most all else was frozen from last week. See below:

	SPX	2461	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.5/3.3*	8.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.27	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	10.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	54	51
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1227/1839	2210/867
Weekly Net:		-612	1343
Cumulative:		179534	180146nh
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	280/88	285/115
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	300/132	302/133
McClellan	Oscillator	13	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	347	267
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.1	19.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29.3	25
	Bear	35.7	39.9
US$-WSJ		91.3	92.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	3.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	11.1B	(20B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		JULY:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.05	2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.27	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

RECESS

In school, Recess was always looked forward to - but in Economics, Recessions are definitely anathema . As history is our guide, nearly every zero year in the decade has seen one- since 1900 there has always been at least one ( up to 3).
So far in the last ten years we have not seen one. Barron's Cover story has a nice chart of how stock Crashes involve Recessions, usually precede the "R" by a year or so, and 5 of the last 6 since 1970 were just after the 0.
As for now, both Technical and Fundamental (Quant) signals are still Bullish, but the next 3-4 weeks could see a single-digit Correction before a final leg up into next year. Another conclusive signal to watch for in a R is the Flat Yield curve, where short term rates - 2-year and 3-month Treasurys (as well as the Fed Funds) are higher than the 10-year Tsy. (backwardation in futures lingo).

Last week saw Volume starting to pick up again as the Nasdaq made a new high ; the McClellan Oscillator (advances v. decline formula) gave a sell signal Friday at +46 -providential. Finally, MMFs (money markets) Flows reversed bigtime -see below:

Date		9/1/2017	8/25/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21987	21813
	NAZ	6435nh	6265
	SPX	2476	2443
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.2/3.6	7.6/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.28	2.17
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.1	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	48
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2210/867	2126/944
Weekly Net:		1343	1182
Cumulative:		180146nh	178803
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	285/115	207/203
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	302/133	152/222
McClellan	Oscillator	46	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	267	172
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	48.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.1	18.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	25	28.1
	Bear	39.9	38.3
US$-WSJ		92.8	92.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	65
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(20B)	29,4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JULY:	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.17	2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.33
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.2	114.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RECESS

unLABOR DAY

A week before Labor Day, everyone, including global economists at Jackson Hole, seems to be on vacation - with both NYSE and Nasdaq Volume below normal levels. However, the recent market decline has reversed, as has the NYSE Hi/Lo reading. The AAII Bull/Bear ratio inverted to the Bear side (Bullish for stocks); the Dollar hit a new recent Low, and MMF inflows continue to expand, as they leave equity funds and ETFs. But Margin Debt leapt back to all time highs, with low interest rates. Not a good sign for when rates rise again, just as with the national debt of $20T !!
Here are the numbers:

Date		8/25/2017	8/18/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21813	21674
	NAZ	6265	6216
	SPX	2443	2425
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.6/3.5	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.17	2.31
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	14.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	48	51
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2126/944	1386/1678
Weekly Net:		1182	-292
Cumulative:		178803	177621
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	207/203	164/245
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	152/222	147/282
McClellan	Oscillator	8	-49
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	172	241
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	48.1	50.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.1	34.2
	Bear	38.3	32.8
US$-WSJ		92.5	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	54
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(11.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	29,4B	12.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.17	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.33	1.31
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.1	114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

unLABOR DAY

WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

Because it is two-tired !!
That's the way the market seem these lazy days of summer - August.
Last week the NYSE New Highs to Lows went negative, following the week before's Nasdaq lead. Advance/decline stocks also went negative.
Stocks on a BUY signal are barely positive (54), while its twin, the Delta MACD is at 51.
 With no signs of a Recession or Inflation, hopefully it's just setting up for a correction or reaccumulation for another winter rally.

Here are the numbers:

Date		8/18/2017	8/11/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21674	21858
	NAZ	6216	6256
	SPX	2425	2441
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.9	9.5/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.3	15.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	60
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1386/1678	561/2527
Weekly Net:		-292	-1966
Cumulative:		177621	177913
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	164/245	259/231
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	147/282	244/297
McClellan	Oscillator	-49	-69
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	241	460
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	57.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.2	33.7
	Bear	32.8	32.3
US$-WSJ		93.4	93.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	54	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.6B	30B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.19
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??

August's second half and September are the worst time of year for the Stock Market - will the Fed keep raising rates to fight no imminent Inflation? We finally got a shot across the bow last week with a market downdraft of more than 1%, but have rallied almost all the way back in a retracement - the McClellan Oscillator gave us the clue at minus 69 (below 50), and the CBOE put/call option ratio spiked to 81 as the VIX almost doubled. MMFs flows jumped up from mutual funds, and NYSE Breadth was terrible. See below:

Date		8/11/2017	8/4/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21858	22092
	NAZ	6256	6351
	SPX	2441	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.5/4.0	9.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	81	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.5	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60	66.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		561/2527	1522/1546
Weekly Net:		-1966	-24
Cumulative:		177913	179879
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	259/231	388/131
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	244/297	298/216
McClellan	Oscillator	-69	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	460	711
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.5	60
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17	16.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.7	36.1
	Bear	32.3	32.1
US$-WSJ		93.1	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(3.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	30B	20.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.19	2.26
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	113.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??