FOOL ME ONCE

Tick, tick, tick - as noted below in the matrix, Margin Interest for February has increased to near-record levels ( 381B was the amount in July 2007). In that instance, it was 3 months before the crash of '07. History may not repeat itself exactly, but it Rhymes.

The S&P 500 finally hit a new NOMINAL high the day before Good Friday (TIGF!), and today sees the usual Monday selloff for 2013, although historically the first day of the month is usually strong.
Here are the numbers- more commentary on them can be found at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Each week this column attempts to highlight Contrary Behavior Indicators (as opposed to making market predictions) by concentrating various comments and data in one place. The reader can SUBSCRIBE to this column (above) for regular weekly updates. It also tries to publicize various San Francisco Bay Area investment meetings for the week ahead.

 

Date>		3/29/2013	3/22/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14578	14512
	NAZ	3267	3245
	SPX	1569	1556
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		6.1/2.7	8.1/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.38
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	13.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1883/1254	1665/1509
Weekly Net:		629	156
Cumulative:		150127	149498
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	622/51	579/102
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	376/66	351/50
McClellan	Oscillator	4	-7
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	931	954
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.4	38.9
	Bear	28.7	33.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	4/12	6/18
CEOinsider	selling	28:1	58:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.7B	(26.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.	366B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	FEB.	812/350/245
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.26%